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Zur Prognose der Lebenserwartung in Deutschland: Ein Vergleich verschiedener Verfahren

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  • Hendrik Hansen
  • Peter Pflaumer

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  • Hendrik Hansen & Peter Pflaumer, 2011. "Zur Prognose der Lebenserwartung in Deutschland: Ein Vergleich verschiedener Verfahren," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 5(3), pages 203-219, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:astaws:v:5:y:2011:i:3:p:203-219
    DOI: 10.1007/s11943-011-0108-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Heather Booth & Rob Hyndman & Leonie Tickle & Piet de Jong, 2006. "Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(9), pages 289-310.
    2. Elisabetta Barbi, 2008. "Regularities and deviations in mortality trends of the developed world," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2008-014, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    3. Booth, H. & Tickle, L., 2008. "Mortality Modelling and Forecasting: a Review of Methods," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(1-2), pages 3-43, September.
    4. Warren C. Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2007. "A new perspective on population aging," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 16(2), pages 27-58.
    5. Anatoli Yashin & Ivan Iachine & Alexander Begun, 2000. "Mortality modeling: A review," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 305-332.
    6. Pflaumer, Peter, 1988. "Confidence intervals for population projections based on Monte Carlo methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 135-142.
    7. Peter Congdon, 1993. "Statistical Graduation in Local Demographic Analysis and Projection," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 156(2), pages 237-270, March.
    8. Bernhard Babel & Eckart Bomsdorf & Rafael Schmidt, 2008. "Forecasting German mortality using panel data procedures," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 541-555, July.
    9. Ronald Lee & Timothy Miller, 2001. "Evaluating the performance of the lee-carter method for forecasting mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(4), pages 537-549, November.
    10. Renshaw, A. E. & Haberman, S., 1997. "Dual modelling and select mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 105-126, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris & Weber, Brigitte & Weber, Enzo, 2016. "Ein integriertes Modell zur Schätzung von Arbeitskräfteangebot und Bevölkerung," IAB-Forschungsbericht 201610, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Hans Brachinger, 2011. "Vorwort des Herausgebers," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 4(4), pages 249-251, January.
    3. Hendrik Hansen, 2013. "The forecasting performance of mortality models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 97(1), pages 11-31, January.
    4. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris & Weber, Brigitte & Weber, Enzo, 2017. "Forecasting labour supply and population: an integrated stochastic model," IAB-Discussion Paper 201701, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    5. Johann Fuchs & Doris Söhnlein & Brigitte Weber & Enzo Weber, 2018. "Stochastic Forecasting of Labor Supply and Population: An Integrated Model," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(1), pages 33-58, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortalität; Sterbetafel; Prognose; Brass-Verhältnismodell; C53; I12; J11; Mortality; Life Table; Forecasting; Brass-Relational-Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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