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Is There a Stochastic Trend in European Union Emission Trading Scheme Prices?

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  • Don BREDIN
  • Cal MUCKLEY

Abstract

The European Union’s Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) is the key policy instrument of the European Commissions Climate Change Program aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions to eight percent below 1990 levels by 2012. The key asset traded under the scheme is the European Union Allowance (EUA). To further curtail greenhouse gas emissions the EU Allowance prices should follow a stationary path about a persistent upward trend. In this vein, this article finds evidence to the contrary indicating the presence of a stochastic trend (a unit root) in EU Allowance prices during the period from April 2005 through to July 2009. This finding is indicative of incoherence between the European Union ETS de jure policy, with regard to transiting to a low carbon economy, and EUA price behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Don BREDIN & Cal MUCKLEY, 2010. "Is There a Stochastic Trend in European Union Emission Trading Scheme Prices?," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 2010-EN.
    • Handle: RePEc:sos:sosjrn:10en02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mirzha de Manuel Armendía, 2011. "Market Efficiency in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. An outlook for the third trading period," Bruges European Economic Research Papers 20, European Economic Studies Department, College of Europe.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CO2 Prices; Energy; EU ETS; Kyoto Protocol; Unit Root.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q49 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Other
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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