An Analysis of the EU Emission Trading Scheme
AbstractThe European Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is the key policy instrument of the European Commission’s Climate Change Program aimed at reducing green- house gas emissions to eight percent below 1990 levels by 2012. A critically important element of the EU ETS is the establishment of a market determined price for EU allowances. This article examines the extent to which several theoretically founded factors including, energy price movements, economic growth, temperature and stock market activity determine the expected prices of the European Union CO2 allowances during the 2005 through to the 2009 period. The novel aspect of our study is that we examine the heavily traded futures instruments that have an expiry date in Phase 2 of the EU ETS. Our study adopts both static and recursive versions of the Johansen multivariate cointegration likelihood ratio test as well as a variation on this test with a view to controlling for time varying volatility effects. Our results are indicative of a new pricing regime emerging in Phase 2 of the market and point to a maturing market driven by the fundamentals. These results are valuable both for traders of EU allowances and for those policy makers seeking to improve the design of the European Union ETS.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Geary Institute, University College Dublin in its series Working Papers with number 201003.
Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2010
Date of revision:
CO2 prices; EU ETS; Energy; Kyoto Protocol; Weather;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q49 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Other
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-04-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2010-04-17 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2010-04-17 (Environmental Economics)
- NEP-EUR-2010-04-17 (Microeconomic European Issues)
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- Simone Borghesi, 2011. "European Climate Policy: Critical Aspects," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 2, June.
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