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Understanding the dynamics of Nigeria’s urban transition: A refutation of the ‘stalled urbanisation’ hypothesis

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  • Sean Fox

    (University of Bristol, UK)

  • Robin Bloch

    (ICF International, UK)

  • Jose Monroy

    (ICF International, UK)

Abstract

Nigeria contains some of Africa’s oldest and newest cities, hosts five of the 30 largest urban settlements on the continent, and is estimated to have the biggest urban population on the continent. Yet many of the basic ‘facts’ about spatial-demographic trends in Nigeria have been contested. Most recently, an article published in World Development in 2012 claimed that urbanisation had stalled in Nigeria. In an effort to establish and explain the stylised facts of Nigeria’s urban transition we analyse demographic and spatial trends drawing on diverse sources, including censuses, household surveys, remotely sensed data and migration studies conducted over the past three decades. The evidence does not support the claim of stalled urbanisation: Nigeria’s urban population is growing rapidly in absolute terms and will continue to increase as a share of the national population because of both rural–urban migration and rural transformation. These drivers of urbanisation are a product of persistently high fertility in a context of declining mortality in both rural and urban areas. Robust economic growth over the past decade likely accelerated urbanisation, but even as the economy slows demographic fundamentals will continue to drive rapid urban growth and urbanisation.

Suggested Citation

  • Sean Fox & Robin Bloch & Jose Monroy, 2018. "Understanding the dynamics of Nigeria’s urban transition: A refutation of the ‘stalled urbanisation’ hypothesis," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 55(5), pages 947-964, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:55:y:2018:i:5:p:947-964
    DOI: 10.1177/0042098017712688
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Evelyne Lazaro & Jytte Agergaard & Marianne Nylandsted Larsen & Jeremia Makindara & Torben Birch-Thomsen, 2019. "Urbanisation in Rural Regions: The Emergence of Urban Centres in Tanzania," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 31(1), pages 72-94, January.
    2. Jytte Agergaard & Cecilia Tacoli & Griet Steel & Sinne Borby Ørtenblad, 2019. "Revisiting Rural–Urban Transformations and Small Town Development in Sub-Saharan Africa," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 31(1), pages 2-11, January.
    3. Lanjouw, P. & Marra, M.R., 2018. "Urban poverty across the spectrum of Vietnam’s towns and cities," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 295-306.

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