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The impact of COVID-19 on the travel and leisure industry returns: Some international evidence

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  • Chien-Chiang Lee

    (Nanchang University, China)

  • Mei-Ping Chen

    (National Taichung University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

This research crucially investigates COVID-19 variables’ impacts on the changing distributions of travel and leisure industry returns across 65 countries via a quantile regression model that uses daily data from December 2019 to May 2020 to provide early evidences from a panel of countries. We find that the change rate in COVID-19 deaths exerts more substantial negative effects on industry returns at majority quantiles than does the impact from the number of confirmed cases. The latter number only saliently and negatively influences the lowest return quantiles, revealing a nonlinear effect of confirmed cases. The study identifies a V-shape correlation between the number of cases recovered and travel and leisure industry returns (i.e. a negative impact at the lower quantiles, but a positive impact at higher quantiles) across return quantiles. This likely denotes that confirmed cases grow exponentially and that their effect may overwhelm the impact of the number of recovered cases. Lastly, this study presents a positive correlation between government response stringency index and returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Chien-Chiang Lee & Mei-Ping Chen, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on the travel and leisure industry returns: Some international evidence," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(2), pages 451-472, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:28:y:2022:i:2:p:451-472
    DOI: 10.1177/1354816620971981
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    5. Umer Shahzad & Muhammad Ramzan & Muhammad Ibrahim Shah & Buhari DoÄŸan & Ahdi Noomen Ajmi, 2022. "Analyzing the Nexus Between Geopolitical Risk, Policy Uncertainty, and Tourist Arrivals: Evidence From the United States," Evaluation Review, , vol. 46(3), pages 266-295, June.
    6. Zhang, Xiaoming & Zhang, Tong & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "The path of financial risk spillover in the stock market based on the R-vine-Copula model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 600(C).
    7. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "Quantile risk spillovers between energy and agricultural commodity markets: Evidence from pre and during COVID-19 outbreak," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    8. Al-Nassar, Nassar S. & Yousaf, Imran & Makram, Beljid, 2023. "Spillovers between positively and negatively affected service sectors from the COVID-19 health crisis: Implications for portfolio management," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Tsai, I-Chun & Chiang, Ying-Hui & Lin, Shih-Yuan, 2022. "Effect of COVID-19 lockdowns on city-center and suburban housing markets: Evidence from Hangzhou, China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
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