IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/sagope/v11y2021i2p21582440211021841.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Perspective of Thailand Economy After the Effect of Coronavirus-19 Pandemics: Explication by Dynamic I-O Models and Agent-Based Simulations

Author

Listed:
  • Ruoyu Chen
  • Chukiat Chaiboonsri
  • Satawat Wannapan

Abstract

The panic surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic has collapsed world economic systems. Thailand is no exception. Evidently, domestic-industrial activities in many countries have nearly stopped, and international sectors have abruptly disintegrated. Unemployment has become critical, and business viability has run into trouble. This article illustrates the potential solutions to these issues linked to Thailand’s domestic and international-trade economies by econometrically applying sectoral forecasting analyses and simulations because the pandemic has not only caused physical damage, but also a negative chain in worldwide economic systems. Methodologically, dynamic input-output (I-O) analysis is circumspectly employed to obtain foresight on some predominantly industrial sectors that could potentially rescue the Thai domestic economy from the depression of 2020–2022. The I-O tables are sourced from official data of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). For the international-trade scenario, the agent-based model and simulations are used to forecast the future trends of macroeconomic responses. The two methods, dynamic I-O models and agent-based simulations, are the current means capable of sensibly predicting macroeconomic responses for monitoring the upcoming years. The empirical outcomes can clearly predict upcoming events that will be beneficial for policy implementations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruoyu Chen & Chukiat Chaiboonsri & Satawat Wannapan, 2021. "The Perspective of Thailand Economy After the Effect of Coronavirus-19 Pandemics: Explication by Dynamic I-O Models and Agent-Based Simulations," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:sagope:v:11:y:2021:i:2:p:21582440211021841
    DOI: 10.1177/21582440211021841
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/21582440211021841
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/21582440211021841?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Takuro Uehara & Mateo Cordier & Bertrand Hamaide, 2018. "Fully Dynamic Input-Output/System Dynamics Modeling for Ecological-Economic System Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-22, May.
    2. Imre Dobos & Peter Tallos, 2013. "A dynamic input-output model with renewable resources," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 21(2), pages 295-305, March.
    3. Vermeulen, Ben & Pyka, Andreas, 2016. "Agent-based modeling for decision making in economics under uncertainty," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 10, pages 1-33.
    4. Krista Danielle S. Yu & Kathleen B. Aviso & Joost R. Santos & Raymond R. Tan, 2020. "The Economic Impact of Lockdowns: A Persistent Inoperability Input-Output Approach," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-14, December.
    5. Sophie Osotimehin & Latchezar Popov, 2020. "Sectoral Impact of COVID-19: Cascading Risks," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 31, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    6. Takuro Uehara & Mateo Cordier & Bertrand Hamaide, 2018. "Fully dynamic input-output/system dynamics modeling for ecological-economic system analysis," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/277116, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    7. Henryk Gurgul & Łukasz Lach, 2019. "On approximating the accelerator part in dynamic input–output models," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 27(1), pages 219-239, March.
    8. Thomas Johnson, 1985. "A Continuous Leontief Dynamic Input‐Output Model," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 177-188, January.
    9. Yamazawa, Ippei, 1998. "The Asian Economic Crisis and Japan," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO), vol. 36(3), pages 332-351, September.
    10. A. O. Baranov & V. N. Pavlov & Iu. M. Slepenkova & T. O. Tagaeva, 2018. "Dynamic Input-Output Model with a Human Capital Block Applied to Forecasting of the Russian Economy," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 29(6), pages 654-664, November.
    11. Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Sevcan Yesiltas & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2020. "COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks and Capital Flows," IMF Working Papers 2020/133, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Biao Huang, 2018. "An exhaustible resources model in a dynamic input–output framework: a possible reconciliation between Ricardo and Hotelling," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, December.
    13. Ippei YAMAZAWA, 1998. "The Asian Economic Crisis And Japan," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 36(3), pages 332-351, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Weiwei Zhang & Shiyong Liu & Nathaniel Osgood & Hongli Zhu & Ying Qian & Peng Jia, 2023. "Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID‐19: A systematic review," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 207-234, January.
    2. Pairach Piboonrungroj & Satawat Wannapan & Chukiat Chaiboonsri, 2023. "The Impact of Gastronomic Tourism on Thailand Economy: Under the Situation of COVID-19 Pandemic," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(1), pages 21582440231, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Angeles Cámara & Rosa Santero-Sánchez, 2019. "Economic, Social, and Environmental Impact of a Sustainable Fisheries Model in Spain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-16, November.
    2. Porcelli, Roberto & Gibon, Thomas & Marazza, Diego & Righi, Serena & Rugani, Benedetto, 2023. "Prospective environmental impact assessment and simulation applied to an emerging biowaste-based energy technology in Europe," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    3. Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2019. "A Test Of The Efficiency Of The Foreign Exchange Market In Indonesia," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 0(12th BMEB), pages 1-26, January.
    4. Solé, J. & Samsó, R. & García-Ladona, E. & García-Olivares, A. & Ballabrera-Poy, J. & Madurell, T. & Turiel, A. & Osychenko, O. & Álvarez, D. & Bardi, U. & Baumann, M. & Buchmann, K. & Capellán-Pérez,, 2020. "Modelling the renewable transition: Scenarios and pathways for a decarbonized future using pymedeas, a new open-source energy systems model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    5. Datola, Giulia & Bottero, Marta & De Angelis, Elena & Romagnoli, Francesco, 2022. "Operationalising resilience: A methodological framework for assessing urban resilience through System Dynamics Model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 465(C).
    6. Solikin M. Juhro & Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2019. "Monetary Policy And Financial Conditions In Indonesia," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 21(3), pages 1-20, January.
    7. Adian,Ikmal & Doumbia,Djeneba & Gregory,Neil & Ragoussis,Alexandros & Reddy,Aarti & Timmis,Jonathan David, 2020. "Small and Medium Enterprises in the Pandemic : Impact, Responses and the Role of Development Finance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9414, The World Bank.
    8. A. O. Baranov & M. I. Kvaktun, 2020. "Forecasting Accelerated Renovation of Fixed Capital Assets in Russia Using a Dynamic Input-Output Model," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 162-170, March.
    9. Alexander Chursin & Andrew Boginsky & Pavel Drogovoz & Vladimir Shiboldenkov & Zhanna Chupina, 2024. "Development of a Mechanism for Assessing Mutual Structural Relations for Import Substitution of High-Tech Transfer in Life Cycle Management of Fundamentally New Products," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-14, February.
    10. Lazebnik, Teddy & Shami, Labib & Bunimovich-Mendrazitsky, Svetlana, 2023. "Intervention policy influence on the effect of epidemiological crisis on industry-level production through input–output networks," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PA).
    11. Sanjay Kumar Rout & Hrushikesh Mallick, 2022. "Sovereign Bond Market Shock Spillover Over Different Maturities: A Journey from Normal to Covid-19 Period," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(4), pages 697-734, December.
    12. V. A. Parkhimenko, 2023. "Experimental Estimation of the Matrix of Import Capital Cost Coefficients in the Dynamic Leontief Model for the Belarusian Economy in 2016–2020," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 543-553, August.
    13. Bonadio, Barthélémy & Huo, Zhen & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2021. "Global supply chains in the pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    14. Danijel Kovačić & Marija Bogataj, 2013. "Reverse logistics facility location using cyclical model of extended MRP theory," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 21(1), pages 41-57, June.
    15. Spyros Niavis & Dimitris Kallioras & George Vlontzos & Marie-Noelle Duquenne, 2021. "COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown Fine Optimality," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-26, March.
    16. Didier, Tatiana & Huneeus, Federico & Larrain, Mauricio & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2021. "Financing firms in hibernation during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    17. Enrique G. Mendoza & Eugenio Rojas & Linda L. Tesar & Jing Zhang, 2023. "A Macroeconomic Model of Healthcare Saturation, Inequality and the Output–Pandemia Trade-off," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 243-299, March.
    18. Florian Dierickx & Arnaud Diemer, 2020. "Challenging a Methodology to Analyse the Cycling of Materials and Induced Energy use Over Time," International Journal of Environmental Sciences & Natural Resources, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 26(4), pages 106-124, November.
    19. Wusheng Zhao & Peiji Shi & Ya Wan & Yan Yao, 2023. "Coupling and Coordination Relationship between Urbanization Quality and Ecosystem Services in the Upper Yellow River: A Case Study of the Lanzhou–Xining Urban Agglomeration, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-20, May.
    20. Buffie, Edward F. & Adam, Christopher & Zanna, Luis-Felipe & Kpodar, Kangni, 2023. "Loss-of-learning and the post-Covid recovery in low-income countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:sagope:v:11:y:2021:i:2:p:21582440211021841. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.