A Macroeconomic Model of Healthcare Saturation, Inequality and the Output–Pandemia Trade-off

COVID-19 became a global health emergency because it threatened the collapse of health systems as demand for health goods and services and their relative prices surged. Governments responded with lockdowns and transfers. Empirical evidence shows that lockdowns and healthcare saturation contribute to explain the cross-country variation in GDP drops even after controlling for COVID-19 cases and mortality. We explain this output–pandemia trade-off as resulting from a shock to subsistence health demand that increases with capital utilization and economic activity in a model with entrepreneurs and workers. The health system saturates as the gap between supply and subsistence narrows, which worsens consumption and income inequality. An externality distorts utilization, because firms do not internalize that lower utilization reduces healthcare saturation. Lockdowns and transfers to workers are the optimal policy response. Quantitatively, strict lockdowns and large transfers yield sizable welfare gains because they neutralize the utilization externality and prevent a sharp rise in inequality. Welfare and output costs vary in response to small parameter changes or deviations from optimal policies. Weak lockdowns coupled with weak transfers programs are the worst alternative and yet are in line with what several emerging and least developed countries implemented.