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The Role of Skill Versus Luck in Poker Evidence From the World Series of Poker

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  • Steven D. Levitt
  • Thomas J. Miles

Abstract

In determining the legality of online poker—a multibillion dollar industry—courts have relied heavily on the issue of whether or not poker is a game of skill. Using newly available data, the authors analyze that question by examining the performance in the 2010 World Series of Poker of a group of poker players identified as being highly skilled prior to the start of the events. Those players identified a priori as being highly skilled achieved an average return on investment of over 30%, compared to a −15% for all other players. This large gap in returns is strong evidence in support of the idea that poker is a game of skill.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven D. Levitt & Thomas J. Miles, 2014. "The Role of Skill Versus Luck in Poker Evidence From the World Series of Poker," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(1), pages 31-44, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:15:y:2014:i:1:p:31-44
    DOI: 10.1177/1527002512449471
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    2. Nicolas P. B. Bollen, 2005. "Short-Term Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 569-597.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ben van der Genugten & Peter Borm, 2016. "Texas Hold’em: A Game of Skill," International Game Theory Review (IGTR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(03), pages 1-13, September.
    2. Sumit Sarkar & Sooraj Kamath, 2023. "Does luck play a role in the determination of the rank positions in football leagues? A study of Europe’s ‘big five’," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 245-260, June.
    3. McFall, Todd & Rotthoff, Kurt W., 2020. "Risk-taking dynamics in tournaments: Evidence from professional golf," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 378-394.
    4. repec:awi:wpaper:0643 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Rogier J D Potter van Loon & Martijn J van den Assem & Dennie van Dolder, 2015. "Beyond Chance? The Persistence of Performance in Online Poker," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-23, March.
    6. Duersch, Peter & Lambrecht, Marco & Oechssler, Joerg, 2020. "Measuring skill and chance in games," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    7. Mikołaj Czajkowski, 2015. "Poker - a game of luck or skills. Review of theoretical and empirical studies and conclusions for law regulations," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 40.
    8. Hergueux, Jerome & Smagghue, Gabriel, 2023. "The dominance of skill in online poker," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Agam Gupta & Yash Khandelwal & Manish K. Singh & Ashutosh Singla, 2022. "Do fantasy sports players' actions influence their performance in Dream11 contests? Adding data to the debate on skill vs chance," Working Papers 17, xKDR.
    10. Madonia, Greg & Smith, Austin C., 2019. "All-In or checked-out? Disincentives and selection in income share agreements," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 52-67.
    11. Eil, David & Lien, Jaimie W., 2014. "Staying ahead and getting even: Risk attitudes of experienced poker players," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 50-69.
    12. Jussi Palomäki & Michael Laakasuo & Mikko Salmela, 2013. "'This is just so unfair!': A qualitative analysis of loss-induced emotions and tilting in on-line poker," International Gambling Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 255-270, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    gambling; poker;

    JEL classification:

    • K23 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law - - - Regulated Industries and Administrative Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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