IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jocore/v45y2001i6p818-833.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring the Dynamics of the Democratic Peace

Author

Listed:
  • Lars-Erik Cederman

    (Government Department, Harvard University)

  • Mohan Penubarti Rao

    (Director, InteCap, Inc.)

Abstract

In quantitative models of international conflict, the variables' causal effects are generally assumed to be constant over historical time. Yet, qualitative liberal theorizing, especially that of Immanuel Kant, has tended to emphasize a dynamic perspective based on the theme of progress. To bridge this gap between method-imposed stasis and theoretical dynamics, a framework featuring time-varying parameters is applied to the democratic peace hypothesis. The model strongly confirms a dynamic reinterpretation of Kant's theory. Results show that dispute probabilities decline steadily among democratic states over time, and the democratic peace hypothesis is not just a transient cold war effect. This result is robust to statistical control involving geopolitical and liberal control variables, including alliances, capabilities, and economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Lars-Erik Cederman & Mohan Penubarti Rao, 2001. "Exploring the Dynamics of the Democratic Peace," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 45(6), pages 818-833, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:45:y:2001:i:6:p:818-833
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002701045006006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002701045006006
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0022002701045006006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cederman, Lars-Erik, 2001. "Back to Kant: Reinterpreting the Democratic Peace as a Macrohistorical Learning Process," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 95(1), pages 15-31, March.
    2. Kalaba, Robert E. & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 1989. "Time-Varying Linear Regression Via Flexible Least Squares," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11196, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Kalaba, Robert & Rasakhoo, Nima & Tesfatsion, Leigh, 1989. "A FORTRAN program for time-varying linear regression via flexible least squares," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 291-309, February.
    4. Henry Farber & Joanne Gowa, 1997. "Building Bridges Abroad," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 41(3), pages 455-456, June.
    5. Modelski, George, 1990. "Is world politics evolutionary learning?," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 1-24, January.
    6. Levy, Jack S., 1994. "Learning and foreign policy: sweeping a conceptual minefield," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 279-312, April.
    7. Beck, Nathaniel & King, Gary & Zeng, Langche, 2000. "Improving Quantitative Studies of International Conflict: A Conjecture," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 94(1), pages 21-35, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou, 2017. "The Globalization and Peace Nexus: Findings Using Two Composite Indices," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 131(3), pages 871-885, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luis Fernando Melo & Martha Misas A., 2004. "Modelos Estructurales de Inflación en Colombia: Estimación a Través de Mínimos Cuadrados Flexibles," Borradores de Economia 283, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Martha Alicia Misas Arango, 2004. "Modelos Estructurales de Inflación en Colombia: Estimación a través de Mínimos Cuadrados Flexibles," Borradores de Economia 3244, Banco de la Republica.
    3. José Luis Torres, 2006. "Modelos Para La Inflación Básica de Bienes Transables y No Transables en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 365, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Morana, Claudio, 2009. "On the macroeconomic causes of exchange rate volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 328-350.
    5. He, Ling T., 2001. "Time variation paths of international transmission of stock volatility -- US vs. Hong Kong and South Korea," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 79-93.
    6. Kalaba, Robert & Tesfatsion, Leigh, 1996. "A multicriteria approach to model specification and estimation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 193-214, February.
    7. Tung-Lam Dao, 2014. "Momentum Strategies with L1 Filter," Papers 1403.4069, arXiv.org.
    8. Dorfman, Jeffrey H. & Foster, Kenneth A., 1991. "Estimating Productivity Changes With Flexible Coeficients," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 16(2), pages 1-11, December.
    9. Claudio Morana, 2009. "An omnibus noise filter," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 459-479, August.
    10. Poray, Michael C. & Foster, Kenneth A. & Dorfman, Jeffrey H., 2000. "Measuring An Almost Ideal Demand System With Generalized Flexible Least Squares," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21796, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    11. Zsolt Darvas & Balázs Varga, 2012. "Uncovering Time-Varying Parameters with the Kalman-Filter and the Flexible Least Squares: a Monte Carlo Study," Working Papers 1204, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
    12. Gomez, Miguel I. & Gonzalez, Eliana & Melo, Luis F. & Torres, Jose L., 2006. "Forecasting Food Price Inflation, Challenges for Central Banks in Developing Countries using an Inflation Targeting Framework: the Case of Colombia," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21181, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    13. Stokes, Houston H., 2013. "Money balances in the production function: Nonlinear tests of model stability and measurement issues – two sides of the same coin?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 101-114.
    14. Kim, Man-Keun & Lee, Andrew C., 2005. "Time Varying Coefficient: An Application of Flexible Least Squares to Cattle Captive Supply," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19124, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    15. Josipa VIŠIC & Blanka ŠKRABIC, 2010. "Determinants of Incoming Cross-Border M&A: Evidence from European Transition Economies," EcoMod2010 259600168, EcoMod.
    16. Naveen Srinivasan & M. Ramachandran & Sudhanshu Kumar, 2010. "Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Environment: Is There Evidence for Opportunistic Behaviour?," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 8(2), pages 4-19.
    17. He, Ling T., 2005. "Instability and predictability of factor betas of industrial stocks: The Flexible Least Squares solutions," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-5), pages 619-640, September.
    18. Claudio Morana, 2009. "Realized betas and the cross-section of expected returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(17), pages 1371-1381.
    19. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Herwartz, Helmut, 1996. "Specification of varying coefficient time series models via generalized flexible least squares," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 261-290, January.
    20. Naveen Srinivasan, 2014. "Testing the Expectations Trap Hypothesis: A Time-Varying Parameter Approach," Working Papers 2014-089, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:45:y:2001:i:6:p:818-833. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.