IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jocore/v45y2001i5p594-620.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Reciprocity, Triangularity, and Cooperation in the Middle East, 1979-97

Author

Listed:
  • Joshua S. Goldstein

    (School of International Service, American University, Washington, D.C.)

  • Jon C. Pevehouse

    (Department of Political Science, University of Wisconsin-Madison)

  • Deborah J. Gerner

    (Department of Political Science, University of Kansas, Lawrence)

  • Shibley Telhami

    (Anwar Sadat Chair for Peace and Development, University of Maryland at College Park)

Abstract

Does bilateral reciprocity or great-power influence (or both) promote the emergence of international cooperation in regional conflicts? Using machine-coded events data and vector autoregression, time-series analysis of 12 international dyads in the Middle East between 1979 and 1990 and 1991 and 1995 found bilateral reciprocity widespread in both time periods, characterizing nearly all dyads of sustained conflict and a majority of other dyads with various power and proximity characteristics. Significant triangular responses to U.S. actions occurred in only a few cases, although key ones—Iraq with its neighbors and Israel with Palestine. Neither bilateral reciprocity nor triangular response predicted changes in long-term conflict and cooperation. Rather, the presence of one or both of these response patterns appeared to be necessary, but not sufficient, conditions for regional states to increase long-term cooperation.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua S. Goldstein & Jon C. Pevehouse & Deborah J. Gerner & Shibley Telhami, 2001. "Reciprocity, Triangularity, and Cooperation in the Middle East, 1979-97," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 45(5), pages 594-620, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:45:y:2001:i:5:p:594-620
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002701045005003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002701045005003
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0022002701045005003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sims, Christopher A, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 443-449, October.
    2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    3. Keohane, Robert O., 1986. "Reciprocity in international relations," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 1-27, January.
    4. Wagner, R. Harrison, 1983. "The Theory of Games and the Problem of International Cooperation," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(2), pages 330-346, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Roy Kwon, 2015. "Does Radical Partisan Politics Affect National Income Distributions? Congressional Polarization and Income Inequality in the United States, 1913–2008," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 96(1), pages 49-64, March.
    2. Mintz Alex & Heo Uk, 2014. "Triads in International Relations: The Effect of Superpower Aid, Trade, and Arms Transfers on Conflict in the Middle East," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 1-19, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rangan Gupta & Stephen Miller, 2012. "“Ripple effects” and forecasting home prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(3), pages 763-782, June.
    2. Brinca, Pedro, 2006. "The impact of public investment in Sweden: A VAR approach," MPRA Paper 62132, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Federici, Andrea, 2018. "Il rapporto tra capitale pubblico e altre variabili macroeconomiche: un'applicazione empirica [The relationship between public capital and other macroeconomic variables: an empirical application]," MPRA Paper 88516, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Federici, Andrea, 2018. "Il rapporto tra capitale pubblico e altre variabili macroeconomiche: analisi della letteratura [The relationship between public capital and other macroeconomic variable: a literature review]," MPRA Paper 88515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Christophe Kamps, 2005. "The Dynamic Effects of Public Capital: VAR Evidence for 22 OECD Countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 12(4), pages 533-558, August.
    6. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Prior parameter uncertainty: Some implications for forecasting and policy analysis with VAR models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 99-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    7. Hansen, Lars Peter, 2013. "Uncertainty Outside and Inside Economic Models," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-7, Nobel Prize Committee.
    8. Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2016. "Financial cycles and co-movements between the real economy, finance and asset price dynamics in large-scale crises," FinMaP-Working Papers 61, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    9. Antonella Cavallo & Antonio Ribba, 2017. "Measuring the Effects of Oil Price and Euro-area Shocks on CEECs Business Cycles," Department of Economics 0111, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    10. Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 2007. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1986-2003, October.
    11. KAMKOUM, Arnaud Cedric, 2023. "The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis and its Effects: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis of the Impact of its Quantitative Easing Programs," Thesis Commons d7pvg, Center for Open Science.
    12. Bierens, H.J. & Broersma, L., 1991. "The relation between unemployment and interest rate : some international evidence," Serie Research Memoranda 0112, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    13. Xu, Haifeng & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2012. "Dynamic linkages of stock prices between the BRICs and the United States: Effects of the 2008–09 financial crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 344-352.
    14. Viviane Luporini, 1999. "Federal domestic debt in Brazil: 1981-1996," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td128, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    15. Zheng, Li & Abbasi, Kashif Raza & Salem, Sultan & Irfan, Muhammad & Alvarado, Rafael & Lv, Kangjuan, 2022. "How technological innovation and institutional quality affect sectoral energy consumption in Pakistan? Fresh policy insights from novel econometric approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    16. Huang, Shupei & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Sun, Xiaoqi, 2017. "Do oil price asymmetric effects on the stock market persist in multiple time horizons?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1799-1808.
    17. Zia-Ur- Rahman, 2019. "Influence of Excessive Expenditure of the Government in Perspective of Interest Rate and Money Circulation Which in Turn Affects the Growing Process in Pakistan," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 6(2), pages 120-129.
    18. Pérez-Forero, Fernando, 2016. "Comparación de la transmisión de choques de política monetaria en América Latina: Un panel VAR jerárquico," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 32, pages 10-34.
    19. Francisco de Castro, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Spain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 913-924.
    20. David Card, 2022. "Design-Based Research in Empirical Microeconomics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(6), pages 1773-1781, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:45:y:2001:i:5:p:594-620. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.