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Comparación de la transmisión de choques de política monetaria en América Latina: Un panel VAR jerárquico

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  • Pérez-Forero, Fernando

Abstract

Este documento evalúa y compara los efectos de los choques de política monetaria en los países latinoamericanos donde se ha puesto en práctica el esquema de metas de inflación (Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y Perú). Se estima un panel VAR jerárquico que permite utilizar los datos de manera eficiente y, al mismo tiempo, aprovechar la heterogeneidad entre países. Los choques monetarios se identifican con un procedimiento agnóstico que impone restricciones de cero y de signo. Se encuentra un efecto de corto plazo real de la política monetaria sobre el producto (con un máximo alrededor de los 12 a 15 meses); una respuesta significativa de mediano plazo de los precios con la ausencia de la llamada "paradoja del precio" (price puzzle) y una respuesta en forma de joroba del tipo de cambio, es decir, evidencia débil de la paradoja denominada "sobrerreación retrasada" (delayed overshooting puzzle). Sin embargo, se halla un cierto grado de heterogeneidad en los efectos y la propagación de los choques monetarios entre países. En particular, se encuentran efectos más fuertes sobre el producto y los precios en Brasil y Perú con respecto a Chile, Colombia y México, y una reacción más fuerte del tipo de cambio en Brasil, Chile y Colombia en relación con México y Perú. Por último, se presenta la respuesta al impulso promedio ponderada después de un choque monetario, que es representativo de la región.

Suggested Citation

  • Pérez-Forero, Fernando, 2016. "Comparación de la transmisión de choques de política monetaria en América Latina: Un panel VAR jerárquico," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 32, pages 10-34.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-32-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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