IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/amerec/v49y2005i2p44-50.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short-Term Output Fluctuations in Poland: An Application of the Is-Mp-As Model

Author

Listed:
  • Yu Hsing

Abstract

This paper examines output fluctuations in Poland based on an extended IS-MP-AS model (Romer, 2000) and the Taylor rule (1993, 1998, 1999). Empirical results show that real output is negatively influenced by the expected inflation rate, the deficit/GDP ratio, and the euro interest rate while it is positively affected by real appreciation and stock prices. Policy implications are that expansionary fiscal policy would not generate expected outcomes and that the conventional approach of currency devaluation to stimulate the economy may not apply to Poland due to the National Bank of Poland's potential reaction to raise the interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu Hsing, 2005. "Short-Term Output Fluctuations in Poland: An Application of the Is-Mp-As Model," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 49(2), pages 44-50, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:amerec:v:49:y:2005:i:2:p:44-50
    DOI: 10.1177/056943450504900205
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/056943450504900205
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/056943450504900205?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barro, Robert J, 1989. "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 37-54, Spring.
    2. Havrylchyk, Olena, 2004. "Consolidation of the Polish banking sector: consequences for the banking institutions and the public," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 125-140, June.
    3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    4. Craig Burnside & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 1999. "Assessing the effects of fiscal shocks," Working Paper Series WP-99-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    5. M Bahmani-Oskooee & I Miteza, 2003. "Are Devaluations Expansionary or Contractionary? A survey article," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 8(2), pages 1-28, September.
    6. Jakub Borowski, 2004. "Costs and Benefits of Poland's EMU Accession: a Tentative Assessment," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 46(1), pages 127-145, March.
    7. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    8. John B. Taylor, 2000. "Reassessing Discretionary Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 21-36, Summer.
    9. Flores, Renato G, Jr & Szafarz, Ariane, 1997. "Testing the Information Structure of Eastern European Markets: The Warsaw Stock Exchange," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 30(2-3), pages 91-105.
    10. Jérôme Creel & Sandrine Levasseur, 2004. "How would a fixed-exchange-rate regime fit the transition economies?. The cases of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 91(5), pages 83-120.
    11. Taylor, John B, 1998. "Applying Academic Research on Monetary Policy Rules: An Exercise in Translational Economics," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 66(0), pages 1-16, Supplemen.
    12. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/3083 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3083 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. John B. Taylor, 1995. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: An Empirical Framework," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 11-26, Fall.
    15. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yu Hsing, 2005. "Impacts of macroeconomic policies on the Latvian output and policy implications," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 467-471.
    2. Yu Hsing, 2005. "Effects of Macroeconomic Policies and Stock Market Performance on the Estonian Economy," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2005(2), pages 109-116.
    3. Jose Tavares & Rossen Valkanov, 2001. "The neglected effect of fiscal policy on stock and bond returns," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp413, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    4. Shesadri Banerjee, 2013. "Inflation Volatility and Activism of Monetary Policy," CEGAP Working Papers 2013_06, Durham University Business School.
    5. Yu Hsing, 2006. "Responses of output in Poland to shocks to the exchange rate, the stock price, and other macroeconomic variables: a VAR model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(15), pages 1017-1022.
    6. Boivin, Jean & Kiley, Michael T. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 2010. "How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 8, pages 369-422, Elsevier.
    7. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2005:i:5:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2005:i:6:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Yu Hsing, 2005. "Application of the IS-MP-IA model to the German economy and policy implications," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(5), pages 1-10.
    10. Botzen, W.J. Wouter & Marey, Philip S., 2010. "Did the ECB respond to the stock market before the crisis?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 303-322, May.
    11. Ayşegül Ladin SÜMER, 2020. "Optimal Taylor rule in the new era central banking perspective," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(622), S), pages 159-170, Spring.
    12. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Ather Maqsood Ahmed, 2016. "Conducting Monetary Policy in South Asian Economies: An Investigation," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(3), pages 161-190.
    13. Luca Gambetti, 2012. "Shocking Policy Coefficients," Working Papers 647, Barcelona School of Economics.
    14. Patrizio Tirelli & V. Anton Muscatelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2004. "The interaction of fiscal and monetary policies: some evidence using structural econometric models'," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 103, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    15. John B. Taylor, 2017. "Rules Versus Discretion: Assessing the Debate Over the Conduct of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 24149, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. César Calderón & Roberto Duncan & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2016. "Do Good Institutions Promote Countercyclical Macroeconomic Policies?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 650-670, October.
    18. Muscatelli, V. Anton & Tirelli, Patrizio & Trecroci, Carmine, 2004. "Fiscal and monetary policy interactions: Empirical evidence and optimal policy using a structural New-Keynesian model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 257-280, June.
    19. ALISTAIR DIEPPE & KEITH KÜSTER & PETER McADAM, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules for the Euro Area: An Analysis Using the Area Wide Model," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 507-537, September.
    20. Levrero, Enrico Sergio, 2022. "The Taylor Rule and its Aftermath: Elements for an Interpretation along Classical-Keynesian lines," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP59, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione "Piero Sraffa".
    21. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Vitor R. C. Britto, 2017. "Interest rate and credit channel for households and firms: Evidence from a large emerging economy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(1), pages 586-604.
    22. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Giammarioli, Nicola & Piergallini, Alessandro, 2012. "Budgetary policies in a DSGE model with finite horizons," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 111-130.
    23. Michael Woodford, 2012. "Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy - Policy Rules in Practice," Book Chapters, in: Evan F. Koenig & Robert Leeson & George A. Kahn (ed.), The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy, chapter 9, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:amerec:v:49:y:2005:i:2:p:44-50. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://journals.sagepub.com/home/aex .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.