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Modelling the Impact of Inflation on Economic Growth for Countries with Different Levels of Economic Freedom
[Влияние Инфляции На Экономический Рост В Зависимости От Уровня Экономической Свободы Стран]

Author

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  • Klachkova, Olga A. (Клачкова, Ольга)

    (Lomonosov Moscow State University)

Abstract

The article examines the impact of inflation on economic growth for countries with different levels of economic freedom basing on the data collected in 182 countries during the period from 1981 to 2015. The countries are divided into groups through clustering. The estimates obtained in the framework of threshold regression with fixed effects indicate that if a country has high levels of the rule of law, regulatory efficiency, and open markets, the level of government intervention in the economy determines the impact of inflation on economic growth: in the countries with high levels of government intervention the threshold level of inflation is higher (approximately 10%), and its impact is more negative if the threshold is exceeded; in the countries with low levels of government intervention the threshold level is lower (approximately 2%), and the negative impact of inflation is softer if the threshold is exceeded. In the countries with low economic freedom (and with high levels of government intervention) the threshold level is low (approximately 3%), but inflation rates higher than the threshold lead to serious negative consequences.The article also provides a modification of the Solow model of economic growth. Total savings are divided into private and public. Private investors are assumed to be risk-averse, therefore their saving rate and level of investment depends negatively on the level of risk in the economy described by inflation. Public investors are assumed to be risk-neutral. Thus, inflation leads to a sharp decrease in private and a gradual decline in public investment, which leads to lower rates of economic growth depending on the ratio of private and public investors in the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Klachkova, Olga A. (Клачкова, Ольга), 2017. "Modelling the Impact of Inflation on Economic Growth for Countries with Different Levels of Economic Freedom [Влияние Инфляции На Экономический Рост В Зависимости От Уровня Экономической Свободы Ст," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 5, pages 22-41, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnp:ecopol:ep1752
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Drobyshevsky, Sergey M. (Дробышевский, Сергей) & Trunin, Pavel V. (Трунин, Павел) & Sinelnikova-Muryleva, Elena V. (Синельникова-Мурылева, Елена) & Makeeva, Natalja V. (Макеева, Наталья) & Grebenkina,, 2020. "Optimal Inflation in Russia: Theory and Practice [Оптимальная Инфляция В России: Теория И Практика]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 4, pages 8-29, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; economic growth; inflation; threshold estimation; threshold regression.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • O42 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Monetary Growth Models

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