IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rmk/rmkbae/v6y2019i1p1-20.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An implementation of Soft Set Theory in the Variables Selection Process for Corporate Failure Prediction Models. Evidence from NASDAQ Listed Firms

Author

Listed:
  • Apostolos G. Christopoulos
  • Ioannis G. Dokas
  • Iraklis Kollias
  • John Leventides

Abstract

The foremost aim of this paper is to propose a reliable methodology regarding the selection process of financial ratios as input variables in the construction of corporate failure prediction models. In this paper soft set theory is introduced. In the first stage, emphasis is given on the state of liquidity as a measure for the classification of a group of NASDAQ listed firms in two a priori groups (failed and non-failed) using four liquidity criteria as follows: current ratio 1, current liabilities to total liabilities 70%, Equity to Liabilities 0 and Total Debt to Total Assets 70%. In the second stage, a parameter reduction algorithm is applied in order to determine, from a group of ratios, those which provide significant predictive power and optimize the classification accuracy of the model. A tabular representation of a soft set is constructed in order to select the input variables in the model based on the importance degree of each financial ratio. The findings show that the primary assumptions relevant to the definition of failure based on the soft set theory approach are confirmed, though the majority of the significant ratios in the applied sample of listed firms are related to the analysis of profitability.

Suggested Citation

  • Apostolos G. Christopoulos & Ioannis G. Dokas & Iraklis Kollias & John Leventides, 2019. "An implementation of Soft Set Theory in the Variables Selection Process for Corporate Failure Prediction Models. Evidence from NASDAQ Listed Firms," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1-20.
    • Handle: RePEc:rmk:rmkbae:v:6:y:2019:i:1:p:1-20
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.riskmarket.co.uk/bae/journals-articles/issues/an-implementation-of-soft-set-theory-in-the-variables-selection-process-for-corporate-failure-prediction-models-evidence-from-nasdaq-listed-firms/?download=attachment.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beynon, Malcolm J. & Peel, Michael J., 2001. "Variable precision rough set theory and data discretisation: an application to corporate failure prediction," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 561-576, December.
    2. du Jardin, Philippe, 2010. "Predicting bankruptcy using neural networks and other classification methods: the influence of variable selection techniques on model accuracy," MPRA Paper 44375, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Almamy, Jeehan & Aston, John & Ngwa, Leonard N., 2016. "An evaluation of Altman's Z-score using cash flow ratio to predict corporate failure amid the recent financial crisis: Evidence from the UK," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 278-285.
    4. Zopounidis, Constantin & Doumpos, Michael, 2001. "A preference disaggregation decision support system for financial classification problems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 402-413, April.
    5. Deakin, Eb, 1972. "Discriminant Analysis Of Predictors Of Business Failure," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 167-179.
    6. Constantin Zopounidis & Michael Doumpos, 1999. "Business failure prediction using the UTADIS multicriteria analysis method," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 50(11), pages 1138-1148, November.
    7. Balcaen, Sofie & Ooghe, Hubert, 2006. "35 years of studies on business failure: an overview of the classic statistical methodologies and their related problems," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 63-93.
    8. Beaver, Wh, 1966. "Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure - Reply," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4, pages 123-127.
    9. Scherger, Valeria & Vigier, Hernán & Barberà-Mariné, M. Glòria, 2014. "Finding Business Failure Reasons Through A Fuzzy Model Of Diagnosis," Fuzzy Economic Review, International Association for Fuzzy-set Management and Economy (SIGEF), vol. 0(1), pages 45-62, May.
    10. Beaver, Wh, 1966. "Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4, pages 71-111.
    11. Altman, Edward I. & Haldeman, Robert G. & Narayanan, P., 1977. "ZETATM analysis A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 29-54, June.
    12. Kelly Rae Chi, 2010. "A systems approach," Nature, Nature, vol. 464(7291), pages 1090-1091, April.
    13. Dimitras, A. I. & Slowinski, R. & Susmaga, R. & Zopounidis, C., 1999. "Business failure prediction using rough sets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 263-280, April.
    14. Andreas Charitou & Evi Neophytou & Chris Charalambous, 2004. "Predicting corporate failure: empirical evidence for the UK," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 465-497.
    15. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    16. Cielen, Anja & Peeters, Ludo & Vanhoof, Koen, 2004. "Bankruptcy prediction using a data envelopment analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 154(2), pages 526-532, April.
    17. Premachandra, I.M. & Chen, Yao & Watson, John, 2011. "DEA as a tool for predicting corporate failure and success: A case of bankruptcy assessment," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 620-626, December.
    18. Zmijewski, Me, 1984. "Methodological Issues Related To The Estimation Of Financial Distress Prediction Models," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22, pages 59-82.
    19. Liang, Deron & Lu, Chia-Chi & Tsai, Chih-Fong & Shih, Guan-An, 2016. "Financial ratios and corporate governance indicators in bankruptcy prediction: A comprehensive study," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(2), pages 561-572.
    20. Athar Kharal & B. Ahmad, 2011. "Mappings On Soft Classes," New Mathematics and Natural Computation (NMNC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(03), pages 471-481.
    21. Frydman, Halina & Altman, Edward I & Kao, Duen-Li, 1985. "Introducing Recursive Partitioning for Financial Classification: The Case of Financial Distress," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 269-291, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Şaban Çelik, 2013. "Micro Credit Risk Metrics: A Comprehensive Review," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 233-272, October.
    2. Mohammad Mahdi Mousavi & Jamal Ouenniche & Kaoru Tone, 2023. "A dynamic performance evaluation of distress prediction models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 756-784, July.
    3. du Jardin, Philippe, 2015. "Bankruptcy prediction using terminal failure processes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(1), pages 286-303.
    4. Salwa Kessioui & Michalis Doumpos & Constantin Zopounidis, 2023. "A Bibliometric Overview of the State-of-the-Art in Bankruptcy Prediction Methods and Applications," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Emilios Galariotis & Alexandros Garefalakis & Christos Lemonakis & Marios Menexiadis & Constantin Zo (ed.), Governance and Financial Performance Current Trends and Perspectives, chapter 6, pages 123-153, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Zhou, Fanyin & Fu, Lijun & Li, Zhiyong & Xu, Jiawei, 2022. "The recurrence of financial distress: A survival analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1100-1115.
    6. fernández, María t. Tascón & gutiérrez, Francisco J. Castaño, 2012. "Variables y Modelos Para La Identificación y Predicción Del Fracaso Empresarial: Revisión de La Investigación Empírica Reciente," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 7-58.
    7. Jie Sun, 2012. "Integration Of Random Sample Selection, Support Vector Machines And Ensembles For Financial Risk Forecasting With An Empirical Analysis On The Necessity Of Feature Selection," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(4), pages 229-246, October.
    8. Ioannis Tsolas, 2015. "Firm credit risk evaluation: a series two-stage DEA modeling framework," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 233(1), pages 483-500, October.
    9. Nawaf Almaskati & Ron Bird & Yue Lu & Danny Leung, 2019. "The Role of Corporate Governance and Estimation Methods in Predicting Bankruptcy," Working Papers in Economics 19/16, University of Waikato.
    10. Fayçal Mraihi & Inane Kanzari & Mohamed Tahar Rajhi, 2015. "Development of a Prediction Model of Failure in Tunisian Companies: Comparison between Logistic Regression and Support Vector Machines," International Journal of Empirical Finance, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 4(3), pages 184-205.
    11. Jackson, Richard H.G. & Wood, Anthony, 2013. "The performance of insolvency prediction and credit risk models in the UK: A comparative study," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 183-202.
    12. Bhanu Pratap Singh & Alok Kumar Mishra, 2016. "Re-estimation and comparisons of alternative accounting based bankruptcy prediction models for Indian companies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 1-28, December.
    13. Fayçal Mraihi & Inane Kanzari, 2019. "Predicting financial distress of companies: Comparison between multivariate discriminant analysis and multilayer perceptron for Tunisian case," Working Papers 1328, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Aug 2019.
    14. Haoming Wang & Xiangdong Liu, 2021. "Undersampling bankruptcy prediction: Taiwan bankruptcy data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-17, July.
    15. Serrano-Cinca, Carlos & Gutiérrez-Nieto, Begoña & Bernate-Valbuena, Martha, 2019. "The use of accounting anomalies indicators to predict business failure," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 353-375.
    16. Fayçal Mraihi, 2016. "Distressed Company Prediction Using Logistic Regression: Tunisian’s Case," Quarterly Journal of Business Studies, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 2(1), pages 34-54.
    17. García-Gallego, Ana & Mures-Quintana, María-Jesús, 2013. "La muestra de empresas en los modelos de predicción del fracaso: influencia en los resultados de clasificación || The Sample of Firms in Business Failure Prediction Models: Influence on Classification," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 15(1), pages 133-150, June.
    18. du Jardin, Philippe, 2012. "The influence of variable selection methods on the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction models," MPRA Paper 44383, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Róbert Štefko & Jarmila Horváthová & Martina Mokrišová, 2020. "Bankruptcy Prediction with the Use of Data Envelopment Analysis: An Empirical Study of Slovak Businesses," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-15, September.
    20. Layla Khoja & Maxwell Chipulu & Ranadeva Jayasekera, 2016. "Analysing corporate insolvency in the Gulf Cooperation Council using logistic regression and multidimensional scaling," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 483-518, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Failure prediction; definition of failure; liquidity and profitability; financial ratios; soft set theory; Logistic regression.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rmk:rmkbae:v:6:y:2019:i:1:p:1-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Eleftherios Spyromitros-Xioufis (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.riskmarket.co.uk/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.