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Impact of Macroeconomic and Banking Indicators on Lending Rates - A Global Perspective

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  • Dan Costin NIȚESCU

    (The Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies)

  • Cristian ANGHEL

    (The Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies)

Abstract

The article reflects the analysis of a relevant issue for the post-crisis context: the direct and indirect linkages of factors impacting the interest rate on loans. The first two parts of the research present the post-crisis financial context for the banking business, together with the evolution of interest rates on loans, as well as the relationships among the main macroeconomic indicators. The third part is based on the use of panel Auto Regressive Vector methodology, which identifies the correlations among the macroeconomic indicators that are relevant for the banking business (inflation, unemployment, exchange rate, non-performing loans, lending rates). The global sample selected for analysis comprises 20 countries, spread over three continents, with data collected for a 12-year period (2009 - 2021). Together, these countries account for almost 53% of global GDP (as of 2021). The fourth part highlights the results of the study, considering both short and long-term perspectives, together with other qualitative correlations that add value to the research. The paper concludes with a section including the authors' final remarks.

Suggested Citation

  • Dan Costin NIȚESCU & Cristian ANGHEL, 2023. "Impact of Macroeconomic and Banking Indicators on Lending Rates - A Global Perspective," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 64-77, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2023:i:1:p:64-77
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial crisis; credit interest rate; inflation; unemployment; exchange rate; nonperforming loans;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

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