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Macromodel Simulations for the Romanian Economy

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Author Info

  • Dobrescu, Emilian

    (National Institute for Economic Research – Macroeconomic Modelling Center, Member of the Romanian Academy)

Abstract

The paper revises the previous author’s estimates of the medium-term evolution of the Romanian economy. It is organized in three chapters. The first examines the most important crisis and post-crisis problems of Romania. The analysis is developed preponderantly from a structural point of view. The second chapter presents three simulated scenarios for the period 2010-2014. One of them (named the Base Scenario BSc) is conceived with macroeconomic parameters close to those envisaged by Government, in correlation with the IMF stand-by Agreement. The other two (the Worsened Scenarios W1Sc and W2Sc) admit less favorable domestic and external business environment. In the final chapter, the results of simulations are compared to each other and also to the officially accepted forecasting documents. Some former similar predictions (anticipating more optimistic indicators) are discussed from the modeling perspective.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.

Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
Pages: 7-28

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Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2010:i:2:p:7-28

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Related research

Keywords: macromodel; input-output analysis; simulation; scenario; crisis;

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References

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  1. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Double-Conditioned Potential Output," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 3(1), pages 32-50, March.
  2. Dobrescu, Emilian, 1996. "Macromodels of the Romanian transition Economy," MPRA Paper 35810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Dobrescu, Emilian & Pauna, Bianca, 2007. "Stochastic simulations on the Romanian macroeconomic model," MPRA Paper 35723, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
  5. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2008. "A Desirable Scenario For The Romanian Economy During 2008-2013," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(4), pages 15-58, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Andreica, Madalina Ecaterina & Andreica, Marin, 2014. "Forecast of Romanian Industry Employment using Simulation and Panel Data Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 130-140, June.
  2. Iancu, Aurel, 2013. "Financialisation: Structure, Extent, Consequences," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 172-192, June.
  3. Andrei, Dalina Maria, 2012. "Foreign Direct Investments in Romania. A Structural and Dynamic View," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 129-146, December.
  4. Stanica, Cristian Nicolae, 2013. "Using a Macroeconomic Model to Check Forecast Consistency," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 119-135, March.
  5. Amalia Cristescu & Maria Denisa Vasilescu & Larisa Stanila & Madalina Ecaterina Popescu, 2013. "Regional Analysis Of The Real Earnings In Romania," Romanian Journal of Regional Science, Romanian Regional Science Association, vol. 7(2), pages 58-78, DECEMBER.
  6. Stanica, Cristian Nicolae, 2011. "Modeling Government Policies used for Sustaining Economic Growth in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 90-105, December.
  7. Franziska Ohnsorge & Yevgeniya, 2011. "Forecasting growth in eastern Europe and central Asia," Working Papers 137, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.

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