Dobrescu, Emilian () (Romanian Academy, National Institute of Economic Forecasting)
Abstract
The paper presents a possible medium-run evolution of the Romanian economy. It is organised in two chapters. The first chapter discusses the conceptual framework of the macromodel used for simulations, insisting on the behavioural (stochastic) relationships and the sectoral decomposition of the global output (based on input-output techniques). The specification is concordant (as much as possible) with the standard theorems. It takes also into account the specific features of the Romanian economy. The following blocks are examined: a) labour market, b) production function, c) domestic absorption, d) foreign trade, e) prices and exchange rate, f) interest rate, g) branch structure, and h) main interactions of the macromodel. The second chapter describes a medium-run scenario (2008-2013) for the Romanian economy, in comparison with the official forecasts (published by national authorities). This scenario is built according to several qualitative premises, as follows: a) the inflationary expectations are gradually diminishing, and the money supply accommodates such a tendency; b) the National Bank of Romania is continuing a prudent policy with respect to the non-governmental credit, which leads to a limited expansion of the domestic demand; c) the foreign capital inflows are relatively stable; d) the public budget coefficients are aligned to the parameters of the last Government economic programmes. The real convergence problem is also analysed.
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Volume (Year): 5 (2008) Issue (Month): 4 (December) Pages: 15-58 Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML
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Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:5:y:2008:i:4:p:15-58
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Find related papers by JEL classification: C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
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