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A Desirable Scenario For The Romanian Economy During 2008-2013

Author

Listed:
  • Dobrescu, Emilian

    (Romanian Academy, National Institute of Economic Forecasting)

Abstract

The paper presents a possible medium-run evolution of the Romanian economy. It is organised in two chapters. The first chapter discusses the conceptual framework of the macromodel used for simulations, insisting on the behavioural (stochastic) relationships and the sectoral decomposition of the global output (based on input-output techniques). The specification is concordant (as much as possible) with the standard theorems. It takes also into account the specific features of the Romanian economy. The following blocks are examined: a) labour market, b) production function, c) domestic absorption, d) foreign trade, e) prices and exchange rate, f) interest rate, g) branch structure, and h) main interactions of the macromodel. The second chapter describes a medium-run scenario (2008-2013) for the Romanian economy, in comparison with the official forecasts (published by national authorities). This scenario is built according to several qualitative premises, as follows: a) the inflationary expectations are gradually diminishing, and the money supply accommodates such a tendency; b) the National Bank of Romania is continuing a prudent policy with respect to the non-governmental credit, which leads to a limited expansion of the domestic demand; c) the foreign capital inflows are relatively stable; d) the public budget coefficients are aligned to the parameters of the last Government economic programmes. The real convergence problem is also analysed.

Suggested Citation

  • Dobrescu, Emilian, 2008. "A Desirable Scenario For The Romanian Economy During 2008-2013," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(4), pages 15-58, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:5:y:2008:i:4:p:15-58
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    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef4_08/rjef4_08_1.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emilian Dobrescu, 2006. "Integration of Macroeconomic Behavioural Relationships and the Input-output Block (Romanian Modelling Experience)," EcoMod2006 272100018, EcoMod.
    2. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Macromodel of the Romanian market economy (version 2005)," MPRA Paper 35749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2007. "Modelling The Romanian Economy: Some Data Problems," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(1), pages 7-25, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Institute for Economic Forecasting & Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, 2011. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version - Yearly Forecast – Autumn Forecast 2011, September Estimate," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 267-269, September.
    2. Institute for Economic Forecasting & Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, 2011. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version Yearly Forecast Preliminate for 2011, November Estimates," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 197-199, December.
    3. Institute for Economic Forecasting & Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, 2010. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" Of The Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version Yearly Forecast - Spring Forecast 2010," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 215-217, March.
    4. Institute for Economic Forecasting & Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, 2010. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version - Yearly Forecast – Summer Forecast for 2010," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 320-324, July.
    5. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2010. "Macromodel Simulations for the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 7-28, July.
    6. Institute for Economic Forecasting & Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, 2010. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version - Yearly Forecast – Preliminate for 2010, November estimate," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 208-212, December.
    7. Stanica, Cristian Nicolae, 2011. "Modeling Government Policies used for Sustaining Economic Growth in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 90-105, December.
    8. Institute for Economic Forecasting & Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, 2010. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version - Yearly Forecast – Autumn Forecast for 2010," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 187-190, September.
    9. Macomodel of the Romanian Market Economy Group (Cornelia Scutaru, Ion Ghizdeanu, Lucian Liviu Albu, Bianca Pauna, Corina Saman), 2009. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" Of The Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version* Yearly Forecast - Spring Forecast 2009," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(1), pages 155-159, March.
    10. Scutaru, Cornelia, 2011. "Possible Evolutions of Investment Rate – Error Correction Models Scenarios," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 141-162, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macromodel; econometric relationship; scenario;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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