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A Desirable Scenario For The Romanian Economy During 2008-2013

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Author Info

  • Dobrescu, Emilian

    ()
    (Romanian Academy, National Institute of Economic Forecasting)

Abstract

The paper presents a possible medium-run evolution of the Romanian economy. It is organised in two chapters. The first chapter discusses the conceptual framework of the macromodel used for simulations, insisting on the behavioural (stochastic) relationships and the sectoral decomposition of the global output (based on input-output techniques). The specification is concordant (as much as possible) with the standard theorems. It takes also into account the specific features of the Romanian economy. The following blocks are examined: a) labour market, b) production function, c) domestic absorption, d) foreign trade, e) prices and exchange rate, f) interest rate, g) branch structure, and h) main interactions of the macromodel. The second chapter describes a medium-run scenario (2008-2013) for the Romanian economy, in comparison with the official forecasts (published by national authorities). This scenario is built according to several qualitative premises, as follows: a) the inflationary expectations are gradually diminishing, and the money supply accommodates such a tendency; b) the National Bank of Romania is continuing a prudent policy with respect to the non-governmental credit, which leads to a limited expansion of the domestic demand; c) the foreign capital inflows are relatively stable; d) the public budget coefficients are aligned to the parameters of the last Government economic programmes. The real convergence problem is also analysed.

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File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef4_08/rjef4_08_1.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 5 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 15-58

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Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:5:y:2008:i:4:p:15-58

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Related research

Keywords: macromodel; econometric relationship; scenario;

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References

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  1. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2007. "Modelling The Romanian Economy: Some Data Problems," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(1), pages 7-25, March.
  2. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Integration of macroeconomic behavioural relationships and the input-output block: Romanian modelling experience," MPRA Paper 35748, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Macromodel of the Romanian market economy (version 2005)," MPRA Paper 35749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Stanica, Cristian Nicolae, 2011. "Modeling Government Policies used for Sustaining Economic Growth in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 90-105, December.
  2. Scutaru, Cornelia, 2011. "Possible Evolutions of Investment Rate – Error Correction Models Scenarios," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 141-162, December.
  3. Institute for Economic Forecasting & Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, 2011. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version Yearly Forecast Preliminate for 2011, November Estimates," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 197-199, December.
  4. Institute for Economic Forecasting & Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, 2011. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version - Yearly Forecast – Autumn Forecast 2011, September Estimate," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 267-269, September.
  5. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2010. "Macromodel Simulations for the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 7-28, July.

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