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Winter Saeculum

Author

Listed:
  • Mihalina, Emil

    (Agram Koncern, Zagreb, Croatia)

  • Krivicic, Ivan

    (Agram Koncern, Zagreb, Croatia)

  • Antunovic, Tihomir

    (Agram Koncern, Zagreb, Croatia)

Abstract

Accumulated imbalances in the economy and on the markets cause specific financial market dynamics that have formed characteristic patterns kept throughout long financial history. In 2008 Authors presented their expectations of key macroeconomic and selected asset class markets developments for period ahead based on Saeculum theory. Use of term Secular describes a specific valuation environment during prolonged period. If valuations as well as selected macro variables are considered as a tool for understanding business cycles then market cycles become much more obvious and easily understandable. Therefore over the long run, certain asset classes do better in terms of risk reward profile than others. Further on, there is no need for frequent portfolio rebalancing and timing of specific investment positions within a particular asset class market. Current stage in cycle development suggests a need for reassessment of trends and prevailing phenomena due to cyclical nture of long lasting Saeculums. Paper reviews developments in recognizable patterns of selected metrics in current Winter Saeculum dominated with prevailing forces of delivering, deflation and decrease in velocity of money

Suggested Citation

  • Mihalina, Emil & Krivicic, Ivan & Antunovic, Tihomir, 2017. "Winter Saeculum," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 8(1), pages 39-52.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:utmsje:0197
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Geert Bekaert & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "The Global Crisis and Equity Market Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2597-2649, December.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    asset allocation; portfolio rebalancing; asset class performance; market cycle; asset class bubbles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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