IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/statec/0033.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

About long-term trends in primary commodities’ prices: overview of researches

Author

Listed:
  • Polshchikova, Iuliia A.

    (Centre of macroeconomic research of Financial research institute of the Ministry of finance of Russian)

Abstract

One of the most disputable questions of modern economics is question referring to long-term primary commodity prices’ dynamics. According to Prebisch-Singer hypothesis that was formulated at the beginning of 1950 year, primary commodity prices have to be decreasing that cause negative consequences for commodities exports-dependent countries. The hypothesis has been tested through available data set repeatedly. The main contribution goes to the fact that despite Prebisch-Singer hypothesis cannot be considered as universal it is true for prevalent numbers of primary commodities. Therefore, countries that have primary commodities as significant part of their exports can be required to act in the side of speedy economic industrialization.

Suggested Citation

  • Polshchikova, Iuliia A., 2019. "About long-term trends in primary commodities’ prices: overview of researches," Economic Consultant, Roman I. Ostapenko, vol. 28(4), pages 95-99.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:statec:0033
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://gossovetnik.files.wordpress.com/2019/12/190412.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David S. Jacks, 2019. "From boom to bust: a typology of real commodity prices in the long run," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 13(2), pages 201-220, May.
    2. Cuddington, John T & Urzua, Carlos M, 1989. "Trends and Cycles in the Net Barter Terms of Trade: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 426-442, June.
    3. Kellard, Neil & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "On the prevalence of trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 146-167, February.
    4. Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
    5. Javier León & Raimundo Soto, 1997. "Structural Breaks And Long-Run Trends In Commodity Prices," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 347-366.
    6. Cuddington, John T., 1992. "Long-run trends in 26 primary commodity prices : A disaggregated look at the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 207-227, October.
    7. Prebisch, Raúl, 1950. "The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 29973, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Manuel Landajo & Mar'ia Jos'e Presno, 2024. "The prices of renewable commodities: A robust stationarity analysis," Papers 2402.01005, arXiv.org.
    2. Winkelried, Diego, 2021. "Unit roots in real primary commodity prices? A meta-analysis of the Grilli and Yang data set," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    3. André Varella Mollick & João Ricardo Faria & Pedro H. Albuquerque & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2008. "Can globalisation stop the decline in commodities' terms of trade?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(5), pages 683-701, September.
    4. Pierre JACQUET & Alexis ATLANI & Marwan LISSER, 2017. "Policy responses to terms of trade shocks," Working Papers P205, FERDI.
    5. Manuel Landajo & María José Presno, 2022. "The prices of renewable commodities: a robust stationarity analysis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(2), pages 447-470, April.
    6. Geronimi, Vincent & Taranco, Armand, 2018. "Revisiting the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in the terms of trade of primary commodities (1900–2016). A dynamic regime approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 329-339.
    7. Winkelried, Diego, 2018. "Unit roots, flexible trends, and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1-17.
    8. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2018. "Income terms of trade and economic convergence: Evidence from Latin America," MPRA Paper 87598, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ghoshray, Atanu & Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Wohar, Mark E., 2011. "Breaking Trends and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Further Investigation," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 120387, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2011. "A reexamination of trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 242-251, July.
    11. Jean-François Carpantier, 2021. "Commodity Prices in Empirical Research," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Gilles Dufrénot & Takashi Matsuki (ed.), Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data, pages 199-227, Springer.
    12. Pierre JACQUET & Alexis ATLANI & Marwan LISSER, 2017. "Policy responses to terms of trade shocks," Working Papers P205, FERDI.
    13. Nazlioglu, Saban, 2014. "Trends in international commodity prices: Panel unit root analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 441-451.
    14. Boris Petkov, 2018. "Natural Resource Abundance: Is it a Blessing or is it a Curse," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 43(3), pages 25-56, September.
    15. Cuddington, John T. & Ludema, Rodney & Jayasuriya, Shamila A, 2002. "Prebisch-Singer Redux," Working Papers 15857, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Economics.
    16. Baffes, John & Kabundi, Alain, 2023. "Commodity price shocks: Order within chaos?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    17. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2012. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions," Scholarly Articles 8694932, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    18. Joseph V. Balagtas & Matthew T. Holt, 2009. "The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives: A Smooth Transition Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(1), pages 87-105.
    19. Kellard, Neil & Mark E Wohar, 2003. "Trends and Persistence in Primary Commodity Prices," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 118, Royal Economic Society.
    20. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2010. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey," Scholarly Articles 4454156, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    trends; cycles; primary commodities; Prebisch-Singer hypothesis; terms of trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R29 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:statec:0033. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roman I. Ostapenko (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.