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Compte capital et développement financier en Tunisie : Causalité et relation de long terme

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  • Gritli, Mohamed Ilyes

    (Université de Tunis El Manar, Faculté des Sciences Économiques et de Gestion de Tunis, Laboratoire d’Intégration Économique Internationale Université de Pau et des pays de l’Adour, E2S UPPA, Centre d’analyse théorique et de traitement des données économiques)

  • Rey, Serge

    (Université de Pau et des pays de l’Adour, E2S UPPA, Centre d’analyse théorique et de traitement des données économiques)

Abstract

De nombreuses recherches se sont focalisées sur la relation entre le développement financier et la croissance, d’une part, et sur la relation entre l’intégration financière et le développement économique, d’autre part. Cependant, l’étude du lien entre libéralisation du compte capital et développement financier reste encore limitée, et en particulier pour les pays du Moyen-Orient et d’Afrique du Nord. L’objet de cet article est de proposer une analyse empirique de cette relation dans le cas de la Tunisie, pays qui a fait le choix depuis plusieurs décennies de s’ouvrir progressivement aux capitaux étrangers. L’étude économétrique menée sur la période 1986-2014 en utilisant conjointement un modèle de causalité de long terme Toda-Yamamoto et un modèle ARDL a permis de montrer que l’ouverture du compte capital avait bien un effet positif sur le développement financier en longue période. Ce résultat est robuste à plusieurs spécifications du modèle autorégressif et à des mesures alternatives du développement financier. Néanmoins, l’impact de court terme de l’ouverture du compte capital est plus limité, en particulier lorsqu’on considère les effets sur le marché boursier.

Suggested Citation

  • Gritli, Mohamed Ilyes & Rey, Serge, 2019. "Compte capital et développement financier en Tunisie : Causalité et relation de long terme," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 95(4), pages 405-428, Décembre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:0199
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