IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rej/journl/v15y2012i43p97-114.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determination of Share Price: Evidence from Karachi Stock Exchange

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Farhan Malik

    (MS-Management Sciences (Finance) Scholar, Shaheed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto Institute of Science and Technology, Islamabad (Pakistan))

  • Muhammad Usman Qureshi

    (MS-Management Sciences (Finance) Scholar, Shaheed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto Institute of Science and Technology, Islamabad (Pakistan))

  • Muhammad Azeem

    (MBA (Finance) Scholar, Air University, Multan (Pakistan))

Abstract

Share price determination is a contradictory task, affected by lots of factors. However some methods and techniques under different schools of thought have been developed for this purpose. Study reviews the important factors and philosophical developments on the subject. It discusses determination of share price using Ohlson (1995) model. Two forms of the model are employed; one is linear valuation model and second is the non-linear product model. Latter uses the product of earnings and book value as third independent variable, in addition to traditional linear valuation model. Research employs book value per share (BVPS) and earnings per share (EPS) as used by several other authors. Empirical findings are based on the sample of fifty two companies from the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) drawn systematically on the basis of highest market capitalization. Eight years of 21st century (2002 to 2009) are chosen as study period. Statistical investigation using Fixed Effects Model (FEM) shows strong evidence for applicability of Ohlson model for KSE listed companies. It also shows that the published financial information is useful for shareholders, and fundamental analysis is pertinent with KSE to a larger extent. However product model of valuation has small improvement for valuation of companies. Adoption of more fair value accounting rules could increase this determination power.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Farhan Malik & Muhammad Usman Qureshi & Muhammad Azeem, 2012. "Determination of Share Price: Evidence from Karachi Stock Exchange," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 15(43), pages 97-114, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rej:journl:v:15:y:2012:i:43:p:97-114
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rejournal.eu/sites/rejournal.versatech.ro/files/articole/2012-03-01/2040/malik.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1983. "Excess Volatility in the Financial Markets: A Reassessment of the Empirical Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(6), pages 929-956, December.
    2. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1991. "Stock Market Forecastability and Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 455-477.
    3. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    4. Clarkson, Peter & Hanna, J. Douglas & Richardson, Gordon D. & Thompson, Rex, 2011. "The impact of IFRS adoption on the value relevance of book value and earnings," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 1-17.
    5. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871.
    6. Brown, Stephen & Lo, Kin & Lys, Thomas, 1999. "Use of R2 in accounting research: measuring changes in value relevance over the last four decades," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 83-115, December.
    7. Marsh, Terry A & Merton, Robert C, 1986. "Dividend Variability and Variance Bounds Tests for the Rationality ofStock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 483-498, June.
    8. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    9. Kleidon, Allan W, 1986. "Variance Bounds Tests and Stock Price Valuation Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 953-1001, October.
    10. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-574, May.
    11. Collins, Daniel W. & Maydew, Edward L. & Weiss, Ira S., 1997. "Changes in the value-relevance of earnings and book values over the past forty years," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 39-67, December.
    12. Francis, J & Schipper, K, 1999. "Have financial statements lost their relevance?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 319-352.
    13. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521839198.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tim Bollerslev & Robert J. Hodrick, 1992. "Financial Market Efficiency Tests," NBER Working Papers 4108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2006. "What Drives Stock Prices? Identifying the Determinants of Stock Price Movements," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(1), pages 55-78, July.
    3. Chung, Heetaik & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1998. "Fundamental and nonfundamental components in stock prices of Pacific-Rim countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(3-4), pages 321-346, August.
    4. Cuthbertson, Keith & Hyde, Stuart, 2002. "Excess volatility and efficiency in French and German stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 399-418, May.
    5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil‐Alana, 2004. "Fractional cointegration and tests of present value models," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(3), pages 245-258.
    6. Buckley, Winston S. & Brown, Garfield O. & Marshall, Mario, 2012. "A mispricing model of stocks under asymmetric information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 221(3), pages 584-592.
    7. J. Bradford De Long & Richard Grossman, 1992. "Excess Volatility on the London Stock Market, 1870-1990," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _133, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
    8. Baur, Robert Frederick, 1992. "Overreaction in futures markets," ISU General Staff Papers 1992010108000010973, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    9. Drobyshevsky Sergey & Narkevich Sergey & E. Pikulina & D. Polevoy, 2009. "Analysis Of a Possible Bubble On the Russian Real Estate Market," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 128.
    10. Berneburg, Marian, 2006. "Excess Volatility in European Equity Style Indices - New Evidence," IWH Discussion Papers 16/2006, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    11. Lucy Ackert & William Hunter, 2001. "An Empirical Examination of the Price-Dividend Relation with Dividend Management," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 115-129, April.
    12. Alexander S. Sangare, 2005. "Efficience des marchés : un siècle après Bachelier," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 81(4), pages 107-132.
    13. Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1189-1214, December.
    14. Kin-Boon Tang & Shao-Jye Wong & Shih-Kuei Lin & Szu-Lang Liao, 2020. "Excess volatility and market efficiency in government bond markets: the ASEAN-5 context," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(2), pages 154-165, March.
    15. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N., 2016. "Non-linearities in financial bubbles: Theory and Bayesian evidence from S&P500," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 61-70.
    16. Alberto Madrid & Luis A. Hierro, 2015. "Burbujas especulativas: el estado de una cuestión poco estudiada," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 38(108), pages 123-138, Septiembr.
    17. Sandrine Jacob Leal, 2015. "Fundamentalists, chartists and asset pricing anomalies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(11), pages 1837-1850, November.
    18. B. Ravikumar & Enchuan Shao, 2005. "Search Frictions and Asset Price Volatility," 2005 Meeting Papers 227, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Franklin Allen & Gary B. Gorton, "undated". "Rational Finite Bubbles," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 41-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    20. West, Kenneth D, 1988. "Dividend Innovations and Stock Price Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(1), pages 37-61, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Share Price; Earnings; Book value; Ohlson Model; Value Determination;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rej:journl:v:15:y:2012:i:43:p:97-114. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Radu Lupu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frasero.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.