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Optimism and Overconfidence in Search

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  • Juan Dubra

    (Universidad de Montevideo)

Abstract

In a standard search model I relax the assumption that agents know the distribution of offers and characterize the behavioral and welfare consequences of overconfidence. Optimistic individuals search longer than pessimists if they are equally "stubborn" and high offers are good news. Otherwise, the pessimists search longer. The welfare of unbiased individuals is larger than that of overconfident decision makers if the latter's biases are large and searchers stubborn. Otherwise, the overconfident may be better off. Finally, I give a testable implication of overconfidence and discuss some applications and policy issues. (Copyright: Elsevier)

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1094-2025(03)00036-X
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 7 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 198-218

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Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:7:y:2004:i:1:p:198-218

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  1. Ehud Kalai & Ehud Lehrer, 1990. "Rational Learning Leads to Nash Equilibrium," Discussion Papers 925, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  2. Rothschild, Michael, 1974. "Searching for the Lowest Price When the Distribution of Prices Is Unknown," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(4), pages 689-711, July/Aug..
  3. Manove, M., 1995. "Entrepreneurs, Optimism, and the Competitive Edge," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 296.95, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
  4. S. Bikhchandani & S. Sharma, 1990. "Optimal Search with Learning," UCLA Economics Working Papers 580, UCLA Department of Economics.
  5. Colin F. Camerer, 1997. "Progress in Behavioral Game Theory," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 167-188, Fall.
  6. Kohn, Meir G. & Shavell, Steven, 1974. "The theory of search," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 93-123, October.
  7. Simon Gervais & Terrance Odean, . "Learning To Be Overconfident," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 05-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  8. Michael Manove & A. Jorge Padilla, 1999. "Banking (Conservatively) with Optimists," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 30(2), pages 324-350, Summer.
  9. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 1988. "Multiple Expectational Equilibria under Monopolistic Competition," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(4), pages 695-713, November.
  10. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2001. "An Exploration into Pigou's Theory of Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Benos, Alexandros V., 1998. "Aggressiveness and survival of overconfident traders," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 353-383, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Constant, Amelie F. & Krause, Annabelle & Rinne, Ulf & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2010. "Reservation Wages of First and Second Generation Migrants," IZA Discussion Papers 5396, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Lea-Rachel Kosnik, 2008. "Refusing to budge: a confirmatory bias in decision making?," Mind and Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 7(2), pages 193-214, November.
  3. Jeremy Clark & Lana Friesen, 2009. "Overconfidence in Forecasts of Own Performance: An Experimental Study," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 229-251, 01.
  4. Luis Santos-Pinto, 2011. "Labor Market Signaling and Self-Confidence: Wage Compression and the Gender Pay Gap," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 11.07, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  5. Akiko Maruyama, 2013. "Learning about one’'s own type: a search model with two-sided uncertainty," GRIPS Discussion Papers 12-24, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
  6. François Ortalo-Magné & Antonio Merlo, 2002. "Bargaining over Residential Real Estate: Evidence from England," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 02-02, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
  7. René Böheim & Gerard Thomas Horvath & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, 2010. "Great Expectations: Past Wages and Unemployment Durations," Economics working papers 2010-09, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  8. Juan Dubra & Jean-Pierre Benoit, 2011. "The Problem of Prevention," Documentos de Trabajo/Working Papers 1111, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economia. Universidad de Montevideo..
  9. Di Tella, Rafael & Dubra, Juan, 2006. "Crime and Punishment in the "American Dream"," MPRA Paper 500, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Munetomo Ando, 2004. "Overconfidence in Economic Contests," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 708, Econometric Society.

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