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Optimism and Overconfidence in Search

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Author Info
Juan Dubra (Universidad de Montevideo)

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Abstract

In a standard search model I relax the assumption that agents know the distribution of offers and characterize the behavioral and welfare consequences of overconfidence. Optimistic individuals search longer than pessimists if they are equally "stubborn" and high offers are good news. Otherwise, the pessimists search longer. The welfare of unbiased individuals is larger than that of overconfident decision makers if the latter's biases are large and searchers stubborn. Otherwise, the overconfident may be better off. Finally, I give a testable implication of overconfidence and discuss some applications and policy issues. (Copyright: Elsevier)

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1094-2025(03)00036-X
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 7 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 198-218
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Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:7:y:2004:i:1:p:198-218

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Rothschild, Michael, 1974. "Searching for the Lowest Price When the Distribution of Prices Is Unknown," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(4), pages 689-711, July/Aug.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Camerer, Colin, . "Progress and Behavioral Game Theory," Working Papers 1004, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kalai, Ehud & Lehrer, Ehud, 1993. "Rational Learning Leads to Nash Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1019-45, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Simon Gervais & Terrance Odean, . "Learning To Be Overconfident," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 05-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  5. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Sharma, Sunil, 1996. "Optimal search with learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-3), pages 333-359. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Manove, Michael & Padilla, Atilano Jorge, 1998. "Banking (Conservatively) With Optimists," CEPR Discussion Papers 1918, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Kohn, Meir G. & Shavell, Steven, 1974. "The theory of search," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 93-123, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 1988. "Multiple Expectational Equilibria under Monopolistic Competition," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(4), pages 695-713, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Paul R. Milgrom, 1981. "Good News and Bad News: Representation Theorems and Applications," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 12(2), pages 380-391, Autumn. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2004. "An exploration into Pigou's theory of cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1183-1216, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Camerer, Colin F, 1997. "Progress in Behavioral Game Theory," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 167-88, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Benos, Alexandros V., 1998. "Aggressiveness and survival of overconfident traders," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 353-383, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Benoit, Jean-Pierre & Dubra, Juan, 2006. "The problem of prevention," MPRA Paper 2462, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Mar 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Angus Chu, 2007. "Confidence-Enhanced Economic Growth," Topics in Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1495-1495. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jeremy Clark & Lana Friesen, 2006. "Overconfidence in Forecasts of Own Performance: An Experimental Study," Working Papers in Economics 06/09, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Nosic, Alen & Weber, Martin, 2007. "Determinants of Risk Taking Behavior: The role of Risk Attitudes, Risk Perceptions and Beliefs," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-56, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  5. Munetomo Ando, 2004. "Overconfidence in Economic Contests," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 708, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  6. Lea-Rachel Kosnik, 2008. "Refusing to budge: a confirmatory bias in decision making?," Mind and Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 7(2), pages 193-214, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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