Interpreting Market Responses to Economic Data
AbstractThis article discusses how bond, equity and foreign exchange markets have responded to the surprise component of Australian and US macroeconomic data announcements over the past decade. The bond and equity market responses are used to infer changes in market expectations for interest rates and dividend growth rates. Both interest rates and expected dividend growth rates are shown to increase by a similar magnitude in response to upside inflation and employment surprises. The estimated changes in the interest rate and expected dividend growth rate differentials between Australia and the US are also compared with the exchange rate response to data surprises. This allows an assessment of the relationship between expected economic fundamentals and the exchange rate.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its journal RBA Bulletin.
Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): (September)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Meredith J. Beechey & Jonathan H. Wright, 2008.
"The high-frequency impact of news on long-term yields and forward rates: Is it real?,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2008-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Beechey, Meredith J. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2009. "The high-frequency impact of news on long-term yields and forward rates: Is it real?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 535-544, May.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2006.
"Real-time price discovery in global stock, bond and foreign exchange markets,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
871, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2007. "Real-time price discovery in global stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 251-277, November.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2007. "Real-Time Price Discovery in Global Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets," CREATES Research Papers 2007-20, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Paula Drew).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.