Forecasting Russian Foreign Trade Comparative Advantages in the Context of a Potential WTO Accession
AbstractFor the private and public sector in any particular country it is crucial to know, which industries may exhibit comparative advantages, that for some reasons are not realized. This can efficiently help all current and potential actors to improve their economic strategy both at the micro- and macroeconomic level. In this paper we propose an approach of forecasting comparative advantages dynamics in foreign trade. The instrument is based on relative price differences and is efficient for countries in the process of economic liberalization. An empirical analysis based on the example of Central and East European countries confirms a good performance in the sense of predictive power of this instrument. On the example of Russia, experiencing a period of economic liberalization and with the prospect to join the WTO agreements, we demonstrate which sectors are most likely to contain comparative advantages in the near future.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by CEJEME in its journal Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics.
Volume (Year): 1 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (November)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://cejeme.org/
comparative advantage; economy in transition; Balassa index; Lafay index;
Other versions of this item:
- Ivan Savin & Peter Winker, 2009. "Forecasting Russian Foreign Trade Comparative Advantages in the Context of a Potential WTO Accession," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200914, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Eckhard Siggel, 2006. "International Competitiveness and Comparative Advantage: A Survey and a Proposal for Measurement," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 137-159, June.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley & Samuelson, Paul A, 1977.
"Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 823-39, December.
- R. Dornbusch & S. Fischer & P. A. Samuelson, 1976. "Comparative Advantage, Trade and Payments in a Ricardian Model With a Continuum of Goods," Working papers 178, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Andrea Zaghini, 2005.
"Evolution of trade patterns in the new EU member states,"
The Economics of Transition,
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(4), pages 629-658, October.
- Andrea Zaghini, 2005. "Evolution of trade patterns in the new EU member states," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 568, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Égert, Balázs & Lommatzsch, Kirsten, 2004.
"Equilibrium exchange rates in the transition: The tradable price-based real appreciation and estimation uncertainty,"
BOFIT Discussion Papers
9/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Balázs Égert & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2004. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the Transition: The Tradable Price-Based Real Appreciation and Estimation Uncertainty," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-676, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Fabio Montobbio, 2003. "Sectoral patterns of technological activity and export market share dynamics," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(4), pages 523-545, July.
- Landesmann, Michael A. & Stehrer, Robert, 2001. "Convergence patterns and switchovers in comparative advantage," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 399-423, December.
- Diewert, Erwin, 2007. "Index Numbers," Economics working papers diewert-07-01-03-08-17-23, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 31 Jan 2007.
- Marconi, Daniela & Rolli, Valeria, 2008.
"Comparative Advantage Patterns and Domestic Determinants in Emerging Countries: An Analysis with a Focus on Technology,"
Working Paper Series
RP2008/81, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Daniela Marconi & Valeria Rolli, 2007. "Comparative advantage patterns and domestic determinants in emerging countries: an analysis with a focus on technology," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 638, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464, November.
- Robert Stehrer & Julia Wörz, 2003.
"Technological convergence and trade patterns,"
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv),
Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 191-219, June.
- Antonis Adam & James McHugh & Theodora Kosma, 2003. "Trade Liberalization Strategies: What Could South Eastern Europe Learn From CEFTA and BFTA?," IMF Working Papers 03/239, International Monetary Fund.
- Shepotylo, Oleksandr & Tarr, David, 2007. "The structure of import tariffs in the Russian Federation : 2001-05," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4265, The World Bank.
- Ashok Deo Bardhan & Cynthia Kroll, 2006. "Competitiveness and an Emerging Sector: The Russian Software Industry and its Global Linkages," Industry and Innovation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 69-95.
- Paul Brenton & Natalia Tourdyeva & John Whalley, 1997. "The potential trade effects of an FTA between the EU and Russia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 205-225, 06.
- Paul R. Krugman & George N. Hatsopoulos, 1987. "The problem of U.S. competitiveness in manufacturing," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 18-29.
- Ishchukova, N. & Smutka, L., 2013. "Comparative Advantage: Products Mapping of the Russian Agricultural Exports," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 5(3), September.
- Ivan Savin & Peter Winker, 2010.
"Heuristic Optimization Methods for Dynamic Panel Data Model Selection. Application on the Russian Innovative Performance,"
- Ivan Savin & Peter Winker, 2012. "Heuristic Optimization Methods for Dynamic Panel Data Model Selection: Application on the Russian Innovative Performance," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 337-363, April.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Krzysztof Osiewalski).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.