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Forecasting Russian Foreign Trade Comparative Advantages in the Context of a Potential WTO Accession

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Author Info

  • Ivan Savin

    () (Department of Economics, Justus-Liebig University Giessen)

  • Peter Winker

    () (Department of Economics, Justus-Liebig University Giessen)

Abstract

For the private and public sector in any particular country it is crucial to know, which industries may exhibit comparative advantages, that for some reasons are not realized. This can efficiently help all current and potential actors to improve their economic strategy both at the micro- and macroeconomic level. In this paper we propose an approach of forecasting comparative advantages dynamics in foreign trade. The instrument is based on relative price differences and is efficient for countries in the process of economic liberalization. An empirical analysis based on the example of Central and East European countries confirms a good performance in the sense of predictive power of this instrument. On the example of Russia, experiencing a period of economic liberalization and with the prospect to join the WTO agreements, we demonstrate which sectors are most likely to contain comparative advantages in the near future.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by CEJEME in its journal Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 1 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (November)
Pages: 111-138

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Handle: RePEc:psc:journl:v:1:y:2009:i:2:p:111-138

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Web page: http://cejeme.org/

Related research

Keywords: comparative advantage; economy in transition; Balassa index; Lafay index;

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  1. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464, November.
  2. Ashok Deo Bardhan & Cynthia Kroll, 2006. "Competitiveness and an Emerging Sector: The Russian Software Industry and its Global Linkages," Industry & Innovation, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 69-95.
  3. Robert Stehrer & Julia Wörz, 2001. "Technological Convergence and Trade Patterns," wiiw Working Papers 19, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  4. Paul Brenton & Natalia Tourdyeva & John Whalley, 1997. "The potential trade effects of an FTA between the EU and Russia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 205-225, 06.
  5. Égert, Balázs & Lommatzsch, Kirsten, 2004. "Equilibrium exchange rates in the transition: The tradable price-based real appreciation and estimation uncertainty," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  6. Andrea Zaghini, 2005. "Evolution of trade patterns in the new EU member states," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 568, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  7. Fabio Montobbio, 2003. "Sectoral patterns of technological activity and export market share dynamics," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(4), pages 523-545, July.
  8. Antonis Adam & James McHugh & Theodora Kosma, 2003. "Trade Liberalization Strategies: What Could South Eastern Europe Learn From CEFTA and BFTA?," IMF Working Papers 03/239, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley & Samuelson, Paul A, 1977. "Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 823-39, December.
  10. Landesmann, Michael A. & Stehrer, Robert, 2001. "Convergence patterns and switchovers in comparative advantage," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 399-423, December.
  11. Paul R. Krugman & George N. Hatsopoulos, 1987. "The problem of U.S. competitiveness in manufacturing," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 18-29.
  12. Shepotylo, Oleksandr & Tarr, David, 2007. "The structure of import tariffs in the Russian Federation : 2001-05," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4265, The World Bank.
  13. Eckhard Siggel, 2006. "International Competitiveness and Comparative Advantage: A Survey and a Proposal for Measurement," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 137-159, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Ivan Savin & Peter Winker, 2010. "Heuristic Optimization Methods for Dynamic Panel Data Model Selection. Application on the Russian Innovative Performance," Working Papers 027, COMISEF.

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