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Caractéristiques individuelles, marchés du travail locaux et chômage en Pologne et en Bulgarie : l'apport des micro-données

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  • Sandrine Cazes
  • Stéfano Scarpetta

Abstract

[eng] Individual characteristics, local lbaour markets, and unemployment in Bulgaria and Poland : lessons from micro-data Sandrine Cazes et Stefano Scarpetta Unemployment has a clear geographical dimension in central and eastern European countries. While unemployment rates are still well below 10 per cent in most capital cities and other major urban areas, they often exceed 20 per cent in rural areas and heavily industrialised sites. In these two areas, the unemployment pool is often dominated by persons who have been without work for prolonged periods and run the risk of leaving the labour market altogether instead of being re-integrated into work. Who are the unemployed in different regional contexts ? How labour market reforms introduced in most central and eastern European countries have affected unemployment flows ? This paper sheds some light on these issues by analysing individual records of people registered at the labour offices of two Polish regions and two Bulgarian regions. We considered different cohorts of individuals registering as unemployed in the last quarter of each year from 1990 to 1993. The analysis of unemployment inflows and outflows and the duration of the spells suggests a rather selective process of hirings and firings across regions and over time. Overall, unskilled or poorly educated workers have the highest probability of becoming unemployed and remai- ning without a job for a long period of time. In the two capitals (Warsaw and Sofia) women seem to be particularly affected by unemployment, while the limited number of job opportunities available in rural areas (Ciechanow, Poland) or in heavily industrialised sites (Botevgrad, Bulgaria) makes it very difficult for young new entrants into the labour market to find a job. Individual characteristics also play an important role in deter- mining the duration of the unemployment spell and, to some extent, the destination of the exit from unemployment (i.e. employment or inactivity). Women and unskilled workers account for the bulk of long-term unem- ployed everywhere, but in particular, in stagnant labour markets. Moreo- ver, the probability of moving from the unemployment status to inactivity increases rapidly with the duration of the spell : in the two Polish regions, more than a half of the outflows from unemployment among the long- term unemployed are to inactivity because of discouragement. The reforms of the unemployment benefit systems seem to have produced important effects on unemployment. On one hand, the introduction of more stringent eligibility conditions has contributed to reduce the share of entrants into unemployment who receive insurance benefits. Moreover, the reduction of the maximum duration of benefit entitlements has boosted outflows from unemployment, although in stagnant labour markets these flows include a large number of discouraged workers who leave the labour market. [fre] L'une des caractéristiques les plus frappantes du processus de transition en Europe centrale et orientale est la segmentation croissante du marché du travail : si le chômage touche plus particulièrement certains groupes sociaux, tels que les jeunes, les travailleurs peu qualifiés et les femmes, il varie aussi considérablement d'un marché du travail local à l'autre. Cette étude essaie, à partir d'une analyse descriptive basée sur des micro-données détaillées issues des fichiers administratifs des registres des agences locales pour l'emploi, d'évaluer l'ampleur de ces disparités régionales, ainsi que son évolution. Elle s'attache plus précisément à comprendre le fonctionnement de différents marchés du travail dans deux pays en transition, la Pologne et la Bulgarie, afin de saisir les ajustements qui s'effectuent au niveau local. Les régions choisies présentent de fortes disparités, tant en matière de performances économiques qu'en matière d'emploi. Les marchés du travail des deux capitales — Varsovie et Sofia — se caractérisent ainsi par des évolutions dynamiques et par des taux de chômage nettement inférieurs à la moyenne du pays. Ceux de Ciechanow, en Pologne (une région agricole peu développée) et de Botevgrad, en Bulgarie (une région fortement industrialisée) sont en revanche plutôt stagnants et le chômage y est particulièrement élevé. L'analyse des flux d'entrées, de la durée de chômage et des flux de sorties suggère que certaines catégories sont plus vulnérables que d'autres sur le marché du travail : les risques de se retrouver au chômage et d'en sortir semblent varier selon un certain nombre de caractéristiques individuelles, telles que le sexe, l'âge, le niveau d'études ou la durée passée au chômage et selon le contexte régional. En outre, les modifications apportées aux régimes d'indemnisation, au cours des trois années suivant le début de la transition, — notamment en matière de durée maximale d'indemnisation et de taux de compensation — semblent avoir eu une incidence sur ces risques. Aussi, même s'il est un peu tôt pour parler de persistance des disparités régionales, la diversité des processus d'ajustement du marché du travail semble justifier un ensemble de politiques de décentralisation, dans lesquelles devraient s'inscrire des programmes propres à l'emploi développant des stratégies de ciblage des populations les plus vulnérables sur le marché du travail.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): 54 (1995)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 105-145

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1995_num_54_1_1403

Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1995.1403
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ofce

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