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Politique économique et perspectives de croissance dans les économies émergentes d'Afrique

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  • Aristomène Varoudakis
  • Patrick Guillaumont
  • Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney

Abstract

[eng] Economic policy and growth prospects in the emerging economies of africa. . We evaluate the growth potential of African economies up to the year 2010. The analysis is based on the estimation of a model of growth in panel data for 39 African economies during seven five-year periods from 1960 through 1995. Our simulations involve, first, a "baseline scenario" which extends policies observed in the past and, second, an "Emerging Africa scenario" where some African economies keep on implementing the reforms already undertaken and achieve a sustained improvement of their performances. Our results make it possible to disentangle the origin of the gains expected from a sustained improvement of African policies. [fre] Politique économique et perspectives de croissance dans les économies émergentes d'Afrique. . Nous évaluons le potentiel de croissance des économies d'Afrique à l'horizon de 2010. L'analyse s'appuie sur l'estimation d'un modèle de croissance en données de panel, pour 39 économies d'Afrique et sept périodes quinquennales, couvrant les années 1960-1995. Nos simulations s'appuient sur un « scénario de base », consistant à extrapoler les politiques observées et un scénario d'« Afrique émergente » où certaines économies africaines poursuivent les réformes déjà amorcées et améliorent durablement leurs performances. Nos résultats permettent de dé­composer les gains attendus d'une amélioration durable des politiques en Afrique.

Suggested Citation

  • Aristomène Varoudakis & Patrick Guillaumont & Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney, 1999. "Politique économique et perspectives de croissance dans les économies émergentes d'Afrique," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 50(3), pages 511-521.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1999_num_50_3_410095
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1999.410095
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1999.410095
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    1. Guillaumont, Patrick & Jeanneney, Sylviane Guillaumont & Brun, Jean-Francois, 1999. "How Instability Lowers African Growth," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 8(1), pages 87-107, March.
    2. Sachs, Jeffrey D & Warner, Andrew M, 1997. "Sources of Slow Growth in African Economies," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 6(3), pages 335-376, October.
    3. Sekkat, Khalid & Varoudakis, Aristomene, 2000. "Exchange rate management and manufactured exports in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 237-253, February.
    4. Berthelemy, Jean-Claude & Varoudakis, Aristomene, 1996. "Economic Growth, Convergence Clubs, and the Role of Financial Development," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 300-328, April.
    5. Dhaneshwar Ghura & Michael T. Hadjimichael, 1996. "Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(3), pages 605-634, September.
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