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Effet de discipline et effet de crédibilité de l’ancrage nominal

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  • Romain Veyrune
  • Jean-Louis Combes

Abstract

[fre] La fIXité nominale impose certaines contraintes pour être viable. Les unions de taux de change de type caisses d'émission et Zone franc garantissent la pérennité de l'ancrage. Elles maximisent ainsi [' effet de la ftxité nominale en contraignant la politique monétaire. Les effets attendus de l'ancrage sur l'inflation SOnt : un effet de crédibilité provenant d'un ancrage durable ; un effet de discipline reposant sur les contraintes imposées à la politique monétaire pour la survie du régime. La procédure économétrique distingue les effets de discipline et les effets de crédibilité des unions de taux de change dans une équation explicative de l'inflation. Les principaux résultats sont la prédominance de l'effet de discipline pour les caisses d'émission et de l'effet de crédibilité pour la Zone franc. . ClassificationfEL : C22, C23, E51, E52, F31, F32, F33 . . . [eng] This article presents sorne econometric tests. The first specification sizes the total effect on inflation. The second specification adds base money supply in order to size discipline effects. The remainder effect is supposed to be a pure credibility effect. Both regimes have a low inflation bias relying more on discipline effects for CBA and on long lasting fixity for the Franc Zone. . lEI classification : C22, C23, E51, E52, F31, F32, F33 . . .

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/ecofi.2004.4893
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue d'économie financière.

Volume (Year): 75 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 55-69

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Handle: RePEc:prs:recofi:ecofi_0987-3368_2004_num_75_2_4893

Note: DOI:10.3406/ecofi.2004.4893
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ecofi

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  1. Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1999. "The Future of EMU: What Does the History of Monetary Unions Tell Us?," NBER Working Papers 7365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. J. A. Hausman & W. E. Taylor, 1980. "Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects," Working papers 255, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  4. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
  5. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
  6. Thomas D. Willett, 1998. "Credibility and Discipline Effects of Exchange Rates as Nominal Anchors: The Need to Distinguish Temporary from Permanent Pegs," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(6), pages 803-826, 08.
  7. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Vegh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," NBER Working Papers 8930, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Fleming, J Marcus, 1971. "On Exchange Rate Unification," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 81(323), pages 467-88, September.
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