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Transformation des systèmes bancaires polonais, tchèque et hongrois : subsiste-t-il des fragilités systémiques ?

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  • Thierry Apoteker

Abstract

[fre] Une analyse micro et macroéconomique des secteurs bancaires en Pologne, République tchèque et Hongrie montre que les fragilités bancaires ne sont plus de nature à provoquer des crises systémiques de grande ampleur, grâce aux améliorations de structure, au renforcement prudentiel et à une moindre vulnérabilité aux chocs exogènes. Néanmoins, une comparaison entre les situations respectives des trois pays révèle des différences importantes : le système bancaire tchèque paraît plus fragile, avec des difficultés possibles en cas de fort ralentissement économique en Europe ; le système polonais est davantage à l’abri des chocs systémiques, malgré une vulnérabilité à l’évolution du taux de change du zloty ; le système hongrois est fragilisé par les aspects concurrentiels et les effets de levier importants dans les entreprises, sans toutefois que ceci ne crée de risque systémique significatif. . Classification JEL : G20, G33, P20, P34 [eng] Transformation of the Polish, Czech and Hungarian Banking Systems : are there Systemic Fragilities ? . A micro and macroeconomic analysis of the Polish, Hungarian and Czech banking sectors shows that weaknesses are not significant enough to be able to trigger full-fledged systemic crises : in all three countries, these industries have gone through a deep restructuring and consolidation process, supplemented by better prudential and supervision regulations and lower vulnerabilities to exogenous shocks. However, the comparison between the three countries highlights large differences : the Czech banking sector still appears more fragile, with likely difficulties if the European economy slows abruptly ; the strength of the Polish sector precludes any systemic shock, even if the sensitivity to potential currency depreciation remains high ; the weaknesses apparent in the Hungarian system is more related to the intensity of competition and high corporate leverage, but compensating factors reduce systemic risks. . JEL classifications : G20, G33, P20, P34

Suggested Citation

  • Thierry Apoteker, 2001. "Transformation des systèmes bancaires polonais, tchèque et hongrois : subsiste-t-il des fragilités systémiques ?," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 455-466.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:recofi:ecofi_0987-3368_2001_hos_6_1_3920
    DOI: 10.3406/ecofi.2001.3920
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecofi.2001.3920
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    2. Ms. Inci Ötker & Mr. Patrick Downes & Mr. Dewitt D Marston, 1999. "Mapping Financial Sector Vulnerability in a Non-Crisis Country," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 1999/004, International Monetary Fund.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General
    • P34 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Finance
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General
    • P34 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Finance

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