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Recensements de la population pour l’étude des reprises démographiques et des migrations résidentielles dans l’espace peu dense (1975‑2011)

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  • Pierre Pistre

Abstract

[fre] Cet article détaille l’analyse des reprises démographiques enregistrées dans les parties les moins denses du territoire français depuis les années 1970. Sur le moyen terme, il met en évidence la progression des croissances de population jusqu’aux années 2000, portées par des soldes migratoires de plus en plus positifs. À la périphérie des agglomérations, notamment les plus peuplées, le développement résidentiel se poursuit par extension. Il est alimenté par des profils individuels bien connus (jeunes actifs, professions intermédiaires, employés, ouvriers, etc.), mais la tendance est aussi à une stratification sociale accrue selon le degré de densité de ces espaces. Hors de la proximité urbaine, les croissances démographiques et migratoires sont aussi devenues majoritaires. L’installation de retraités y joue un rôle moteur depuis les années 1980, et l’originalité de la dernière décennie tient à l’arrivée d’une diversité d’actifs en milieu et fin de carrière professionnelle. . L’approfondissement des analyses pour les décennies 2000 et 2010 révèle par ailleurs un tassement des croissances migratoires après la crise économique de 2008‑2009. Il concerne l’ensemble des configurations de l’espace peu dense, en particulier les moins denses, mais il fragilise surtout les reprises dans les communes isolées et les petites et moyennes aires urbaines. Selon les catégories d’espace, l’explication paraît tenir à de moindres migrations entrantes des actifs et/ ou des groupes socioprofessionnels moyens et supérieurs.. Les tendances récentes, examinées à partir des données détaillées du recensement et des enquêtes annuelles, demandent à être confirmées par l’exploitation des prochaines données migratoires du recensement, disponibles en 2016 (RP 2013). Pour les communes de moins de 10 000 habitants, le développement de méthodes d’étude annualisée est aussi un enjeu important pour mieux suivre la tendance inégale aux reprises démographiques.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Pistre, 2016. "Recensements de la population pour l’étude des reprises démographiques et des migrations résidentielles dans l’espace peu dense (1975‑2011)," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 483(1), pages 151-178.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_2016_num_483_1_10677
    DOI: 10.3406/estat.2016.10677
    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.2016.10677
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cécile Détang‐Dessendre & Florence Goffette‐Nagot & Virginie Piguet, 2008. "Life Cycle And Migration To Urban And Rural Areas: Estimation Of A Mixed Logit Model On French Data," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(4), pages 789-824, October.
    2. Cécile Détang-Dessendre & Virginie Piguet & Bertrand Schmitt, 2002. "Les déterminants micro-économiques des migrations urbain-rural : leur variabilité en fonction de la position dans le cycle de vie," Population (french edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 57(1), pages 35-62.
    3. Guy Desplanques, 2008. "Avantages et incertitudes des enquêtes annuelles de recensement en France," Population (french edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 63(3), pages 477-501.
    4. Cécile Détang-Dessendre & Florence Goffette-Nagot & Virginie Piguet, 2004. "Life-cycle position and migration to urban and rural areas: estimations of a mixed logit model on French data," Working Papers 0403, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    5. Gabadinho, Alexis & Ritschard, Gilbert & Müller, Nicolas S & Studer, Matthias, 2011. "Analyzing and Visualizing State Sequences in R with TraMineR," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 40(i04).
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