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Libéralisation commerciale, croissance et pauvreté au Sénégal : une analyse à l’aide d’un MEGC microsimulé dynamique

Author

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  • Bernard Decaluwé
  • John Cockburn
  • Fatou Cissé
  • Nabil Annabi

Abstract

[eng] An integrated sequential dynamic computable general equilibrium model is used to study the potential poverty and inequality effects of a complete tariff removal in Senegal. The model is calibrated with a 1996 social accounting matrix and a 1995 survey of 3,278 households. The outcomes indicate small short-run negative impacts in terms of welfare and poverty. In the long run, growth effects captured by the model bring an expansion of the industrial and service sectors and a substantial poverty decrease. However, the decomposition of the results shows that the contribution of the redistribution component to poverty alleviation is negative. [fre] Un modèle d’équilibre général microsimulé dynamique est utilisé pour étudier les effets potentiels de l’élimination complète des tarifs douaniers sur la pauvreté et l’inégalité au Sénégal. Le modèle est calibré à l’aide d’une matrice de comptabilité sociale de 1996 et d’une enquête auprès de 3278 ménages de 1995. Les résultats indiquent une baisse du bien-être et une augmentation de la pauvreté à court terme. A long terme, les effets de croissance captés par le modèle entraînent une expansion des secteurs de l’industrie et des services, et une diminution importante de la pauvreté. Toutefois, la décomposition des résultats montre que la contribution de la redistribution à l’allégement de la pauvreté est négative.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernard Decaluwé & John Cockburn & Fatou Cissé & Nabil Annabi, 2008. "Libéralisation commerciale, croissance et pauvreté au Sénégal : une analyse à l’aide d’un MEGC microsimulé dynamique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 186(5), pages 117-131.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2008_num_186_5_7856
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2008.7856
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2008.7856
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    1. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-766, May.
    2. Nabil Annabi & H. Khondker Bazlul & Selim Raihan & John Cockburn & Bernard Decaluwe, 2005. "Implications of WTO Agreements and Domestic Trade Policy Reforms for Poverty in Bangladesh: Short vs. Long Run," Working Papers MPIA 2005-02, PEP-MPIA.
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    7. Jagdish Bhagwati, 2002. "Trade and Poverty in the Poor Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 180-183, May.
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    2. Rodrigue Nobosse Tchoffo & Ibrahim Ngouhouo, 2020. "Cameroon’s Bilateral Economic Partnership Agreement: A Microsimulation Approach," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 67-84, March.
    3. Nabil Annabi & Maxime Fougere & Min Li, 2013. "Foreign Competition and Income Distribution in Canada: A Dynamic Microsimulation CGE Model Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 525-547, December.
    4. Franck Viroleau, 2015. "The Evolution of Gender Wage Inequality in Senegal Following the Economic Partnership Agreements," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-10, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    5. Sokhna Diarra MBOUP & Racky BALDE & Thierno Malick DIALLO & Christian Arnault EMINI, 2016. "L’impact des réformes commerciales sur l’emploi et le bien-être dans les pays de la CEDEAO : le cas du Sénégal," Working Papers MPIA 2016-26, PEP-MPIA.

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