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Implications of WTO Agreements and Domestic Trade Policy Reforms for Poverty in Bangladesh: Short vs. Long Run

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Author Info

  • Nabil Annabi
  • H. Khondker Bazlul
  • Selim Raihan
  • John Cockburn
  • Bernard Decaluwe

Abstract

We examine the impacts of WTO agreements and domestic trade policy reforms on production, welfare and poverty in Bangladesh. A sequential dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which takes into account accumulation effects, is used allowing for long run analysis. The study is based on 2000 SAM of Bangladesh including fifteen production sectors, four factors of production (skilled and unskilled labour, agricultural and non-agricultural capital) and mine household groups (five in rural areas and four in urban areas) based on the year 2000 household survey. To examine the link between the macro effects and micro effects in terms of poverty we use the representative household approach with actual intra-group income distributions. The study presents five simulations for which the major findings are: (1) the Doha scenario has negative implications for the overall macro economy, household welfare and poverty in Bangladesh. Terms of trade deteriorate and consumer prices, particularly food prices, increase more than nominal incomes, especially among poor households; (2) Free world trade has similar, but larger, impacts; (3) Domestic trade liberalisation induces an expansion of agricultural and light manufacturing sectors, favourable changes in the domestic terms of trade. Although the short run welfare and poverty impacts are negative, these turn positive in the long run when capital has adjusted through new investments. Rising unskilled wage rates make the poorest household the biggest winners in terms of welfare and poverty reduction; (4) Domestic liberalisation effects far outweigh those of free world trade when these scenarios are combined; (5) Remittances constitute a powerful poverty-reducing tool given their greater importance in the income of the poor.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by PEP-MPIA in its series Working Papers MPIA with number 2005-02.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:lvl:mpiacr:2005-02

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Keywords: Dynamic CGE model; International trade; Poverty; Bangladesh;

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References

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  1. John C. Beghin & David Roland-Holst & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2002. "Global Agricultural Trade and the Doha Round: What are the Implications for North and South?," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 02-wp308, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
  2. Rizwana Siddiqui & A. R. Kemal, 2006. "Remittances, Trade Liberalisation, and Poverty in Pakistan: The Role of Excluded Variables in Poverty Change Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(3), pages 383-415.
  3. Montfort Mlachila & Yongzheng Yang, 2004. "The End of Textiles Quotas: A Case Study of the Impact on Bangladesh," IMF Working Papers 04/108, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Francois, Joseph & van Meijl, Hans & van Tongeren, Frank, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Developing Countries Under the Doha Round," CEPR Discussion Papers 4032, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Walmsley, Terrie L. & Winters, L. Alan, 2005. "Relaxing the Restrictions on the Temporary Movement of Natural Persons: A Simulation Analysis," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 20, pages 688-726.
  6. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Bernard Decaluwé & Luc Savard, 2003. "Poverty, Income Distribution and CGE Modeling: Does the Functional Form of Distribution Matter?," Cahiers de recherche 0332, CIRPEE.
  7. Diao, Xinshen & Somwaru, Agapi, 2001. "Impact of the MFA phase-out on the world economy," TMD discussion papers 79, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hoque, Serajul, 2008. "The macroeconomic, industrial and distributional effects of removing tariffs in Bangladesh," MPRA Paper 9577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Nabil Annabi & Fatou Cissé & John Cockburn & Bernard Decaluwé, 2005. "Trade Liberalisation, Growth and Poverty in Senegal: a Dynamic Microsimulation CGE Model Analysis," Working Papers 2005-07, CEPII research center.
  3. Ramos Mabugu & Margaret Chitiga, 2007. "Poverty and Inequality Impacts of Trade Policy Reforms in South Africa," Working Papers MPIA 2007-19, PEP-MPIA.
  4. Nahar, Bodrun & Siriwardana, Mahinda, 2009. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in Bangladesh: A General Equilibrium Approach," 2009 Conference (53rd), February 11-13, 2009, Cairns, Australia 47629, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  5. John Gilbert, 2011. "Trade reforms under Doha and income distribution in South Asia," STUDIES IN TRADE AND INVESTMENT, in: Trade-led growth: A sound strategy for Asia, chapter 12 United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
  6. Ramos Mabugu & Margaret Chitiga, 2006. "Textiles Protection and Poverty in South Africa/La protection du secteur des textiles et la pauvreté en Afrique du Sud: une analyse en équilibre général calculable dynamique micro-simulé," Working Papers MPIA 2007-01, PEP-MPIA.
  7. John Gilbert, 2008. "Agricultural trade reform and poverty in the Asia-Pacific region: a survey and some new results," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 15(1), pages 1-34, June.

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