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On the Treatment of Airline Travelers in Mathematical Models

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  • Michael A Johansson
  • Neysarí Arana-Vizcarrondo
  • Brad J Biggerstaff
  • J Erin Staples
  • Nancy Gallagher
  • Nina Marano

Abstract

The global spread of infectious diseases is facilitated by the ability of infected humans to travel thousands of miles in short time spans, rapidly transporting pathogens to distant locations. Mathematical models of the actual and potential spread of specific pathogens can assist public health planning in the case of such an event. Models should generally be parsimonious, but must consider all potentially important components of the system to the greatest extent possible. We demonstrate and discuss important assumptions relative to the parameterization and structural treatment of airline travel in mathematical models. Among other findings, we show that the most common structural treatment of travelers leads to underestimation of the speed of spread and that connecting travel is critical to a realistic spread pattern. Models involving travelers can be improved significantly by relatively simple structural changes but also may require further attention to details of parameterization.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael A Johansson & Neysarí Arana-Vizcarrondo & Brad J Biggerstaff & J Erin Staples & Nancy Gallagher & Nina Marano, 2011. "On the Treatment of Airline Travelers in Mathematical Models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(7), pages 1-7, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0022151
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0022151
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Helen J Wearing & Pejman Rohani & Matt J Keeling, 2005. "Appropriate Models for the Management of Infectious Diseases," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(7), pages 1-1, July.
    2. Joël Mossong & Niel Hens & Mark Jit & Philippe Beutels & Kari Auranen & Rafael Mikolajczyk & Marco Massari & Stefania Salmaso & Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba & Jacco Wallinga & Janneke Heijne & Malgorzata Sa, 2008. "Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(3), pages 1-1, March.
    3. Vittoria Colizza & Alain Barrat & Marc Barthelemy & Alain-Jacques Valleron & Alessandro Vespignani, 2007. "Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(1), pages 1-16, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ceddia, M.G. & Bardsley, N.O. & Goodwin, R. & Holloway, G.J. & Nocella, G. & Stasi, A., 2013. "A complex system perspective on the emergence and spread of infectious diseases: Integrating economic and ecological aspects," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 124-131.
    2. Mao, Liang & Wu, Xiao & Huang, Zhuojie & Tatem, Andrew J., 2015. "Modeling monthly flows of global air travel passengers: An open-access data resource," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 52-60.
    3. Suau-Sanchez, Pere & Voltes-Dorta, Augusto & Rodríguez-Déniz, Héctor, 2016. "Measuring the potential for self-connectivity in global air transport markets: Implications for airports and airlines," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 70-82.

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