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Pandemic simulation of antivirals + school closures: buying time until strain-specific vaccine is available

Author

Listed:
  • S. M. Mniszewski

    (Los Alamos National Laboratory)

  • S. Y. Del Valle

    (Los Alamos National Laboratory)

  • P. D. Stroud

    (Los Alamos National Laboratory)

  • J. M. Riese

    (Los Alamos National Laboratory)

  • S. J. Sydoriak

    (Los Alamos National Laboratory)

Abstract

A strain-specific vaccine is unlikely to be available in the early phases of a potential H5N1 avian influenza pandemic. It could be months and at the current production rate may not provide timely protection to the population. Intervention strategies that control the spread of infection will be necessary in this situation, such as the use of the US stockpile of antiviral medication coupled with a 6-month school closure. The agent-based simulation model, EpiSimS, was used to assess the impact of this intervention strategy followed by three different vaccine approaches: (1) 2-dose, 80% effective, (2) 1-dose, 30% effective, and (3) 1 dose, 80% effective. Simulations show that the combination of antivirals, school closures, and a strain-specific vaccine can reduce morbidity and mortality while in effect. A significant second infection wave can occur with current vaccine technology once school closures are relaxed, though an ideal vaccine is able to contain it. In our simulations, worker absenteeism increases in all cases mostly attributed to household adults staying home with children due to the school closures.

Suggested Citation

  • S. M. Mniszewski & S. Y. Del Valle & P. D. Stroud & J. M. Riese & S. J. Sydoriak, 2008. "Pandemic simulation of antivirals + school closures: buying time until strain-specific vaccine is available," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 209-221, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:comaot:v:14:y:2008:i:3:d:10.1007_s10588-008-9027-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10588-008-9027-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Phillip Stroud & Sara Del Valle & Stephen Sydoriak & Jane Riese & Susan Mniszewski, 2007. "Spatial Dynamics of Pandemic Influenza in a Massive Artificial Society," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 10(4), pages 1-9.
    2. Neil M. Ferguson & Derek A.T. Cummings & Simon Cauchemez & Christophe Fraser & Steven Riley & Aronrag Meeyai & Sopon Iamsirithaworn & Donald S. Burke, 2005. "Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia," Nature, Nature, vol. 437(7056), pages 209-214, September.
    3. Vittoria Colizza & Alain Barrat & Marc Barthelemy & Alain-Jacques Valleron & Alessandro Vespignani, 2007. "Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(1), pages 1-16, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elnaz Karimi & Ketra Schmitt & Ali Akgunduz, 2015. "Effect of individual protective behaviors on influenza transmission: an agent-based model," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 318-333, September.
    2. Ozgur Araz & Alison Galvani & Lauren Meyers, 2012. "Geographic prioritization of distributing pandemic influenza vaccines," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 175-187, September.
    3. Qingxia Zhang & Dingcheng Wang, 2015. "Assessing the Role of Voluntary Self-Isolation in the Control of Pandemic Influenza Using a Household Epidemic Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-18, August.
    4. Wei Zhong & Yushim Kim & Megan Jehn, 2013. "Modeling dynamics of an influenza pandemic with heterogeneous coping behaviors: case study of a 2009 H1N1 outbreak in Arizona," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 622-645, December.
    5. Geoffrey Fairchild & Kyle S. Hickmann & Susan M. Mniszewski & Sara Y. Del Valle & James M. Hyman, 2014. "Optimizing human activity patterns using global sensitivity analysis," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 394-416, December.

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