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Simulating disease transmission dynamics at a multi-scale level

Author

Listed:
  • Moshe B Hoshen

    (Department of Physics, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZE, UK)

  • Anthony H Burton

    (Vaccines and Biologicals, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland)

  • Themis J V Bowcock

    (Department of Physics, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZE, UK)

Abstract

We present a model of the global spread of a generic human infectious disease using a Monte Carlo micro-simulation with large-scale parallel-processing. This prototype has been constructed and tested on a model of the entire population of the British Isles. Typical results are presented. A microsimulation of this order of magnitude of population simulation has not been previously attained. Further, an efficiency assessment of processor usage indicates that extension to the global scale is feasible. We conclude that the flexible approach outlined provides the framework for a virtual laboratory capable of supporting public health policy making at a variety of spatial scales.

Suggested Citation

  • Moshe B Hoshen & Anthony H Burton & Themis J V Bowcock, 2007. "Simulating disease transmission dynamics at a multi-scale level," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 1(1), pages 26-34.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijm:journl:v:1:y:2007:i:1:p:26-34
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    File URL: http://ima.natsem.canberra.edu.au/IJM/V1_1/IJM_1_1_4.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Cathal O'Donoghue & Karyn Morrissey & John Lennon, 2014. "Spatial Microsimulation Modelling: a Review of Applications and Methodological Choices," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 7(1), pages 26-75.

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