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Simulating disease transmission dynamics at a multi-scale level


Author Info

  • Moshe B Hoshen

    (Department of Physics, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZE, UK)

  • Anthony H Burton

    (Vaccines and Biologicals, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland)

  • Themis J V Bowcock

    (Department of Physics, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZE, UK)

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    We present a model of the global spread of a generic human infectious disease using a Monte Carlo micro-simulation with large-scale parallel-processing. This prototype has been constructed and tested on a model of the entire population of the British Isles. Typical results are presented. A microsimulation of this order of magnitude of population simulation has not been previously attained. Further, an efficiency assessment of processor usage indicates that extension to the global scale is feasible. We conclude that the flexible approach outlined provides the framework for a virtual laboratory capable of supporting public health policy making at a variety of spatial scales.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Interational Microsimulation Association in its journal International Journal of Microsimulation.

    Volume (Year): 1 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 26-34

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    Handle: RePEc:ijm:journl:v:1:y:2007:i:1:p:26-34

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    Keywords: high-performance computing; global modelling; disease transmission;


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    Cited by:
    1. Cathal O'Donoghue & Karyn Morrissey & John Lennon, 2014. "Spatial Microsimulation Modelling: a Review of Applications and Methodological Choices," International Journal of Microsimulation, Interational Microsimulation Association, Interational Microsimulation Association, vol. 7(1), pages 26-75.


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