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Fluctuations for the outbreak prevalence of the SIR epidemics in complex networks

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  • Wang, Jia-Zeng
  • Peng, Wei-Hua

Abstract

The contacting heterogeneity is crucial for the propagation of directed transmitted infectious diseases. Here we construct a stochastic model on the level of subgroups which are classified according to the activity degrees of the hosts. Using the central limit theorem, we present the analytical results concerning with the fluctuations around the outbreak prevalence. In particular, we get the forms of the covariance matrix for Gaussian random diffusions as well as the laws of outbreak prevalence for SIR epidemics. So that the analytical distributions for the outbreak prevalence of the SIR epidemics in complex networks are presented, which can be used in outbreak prevalence predicting and transmission intensity inferring.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Jia-Zeng & Peng, Wei-Hua, 2020. "Fluctuations for the outbreak prevalence of the SIR epidemics in complex networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 548(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:548:y:2020:i:c:s0378437119321387
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.123848
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wang, Jia-Zeng & Qian, Min & Qian, Hong, 2012. "Circular stochastic fluctuations in SIS epidemics with heterogeneous contacts among sub-populations," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 223-231.
    2. Wang, Jia-Zeng & Fan, Yan-Hua, 2019. "Laws of epidemic dynamics in complex networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 524(C), pages 30-35.
    3. J. O. Lloyd-Smith & S. J. Schreiber & P. E. Kopp & W. M. Getz, 2005. "Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 355-359, November.
    4. Alison P. Galvani & Robert M. May, 2005. "Dimensions of superspreading," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 293-295, November.
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    Keywords

    Outbreak prevalence; Covariance matrix;

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