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Dynamic Transmission Modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Pitman
  • David Fisman
  • Gregory S. Zaric
  • Maarten Postma
  • Mirjam Kretzschmar
  • John Edmunds
  • Marc Brisson

Abstract

The transmissible nature of communicable diseases is what sets them apart from other diseases modeled by health economists. The probability of a susceptible individual becoming infected at any one point in time (the force of infection) is related to the number of infectious individuals in the population, will change over time, and will feed back into the future force of infection. These nonlinear interactions produce transmission dynamics that require specific consideration when modeling an intervention that has an impact on the transmission of a pathogen. Best practices for designing and building these models are set out in this paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Pitman & David Fisman & Gregory S. Zaric & Maarten Postma & Mirjam Kretzschmar & John Edmunds & Marc Brisson, 2012. "Dynamic Transmission Modeling," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 32(5), pages 712-721, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:32:y:2012:i:5:p:712-721
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X12454578
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Klas Kellerborg & Werner Brouwer & Pieter Baal, 2020. "Costs and benefits of interventions aimed at major infectious disease threats: lessons from the literature," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 21(9), pages 1329-1350, December.
    3. Xiao Zang & Houlin Tang & Jeong Eun Min & Diane Gu & Julio S G Montaner & Zunyou Wu & Bohdan Nosyk, 2016. "Cost-Effectiveness of the ‘One4All’ HIV Linkage Intervention in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-17, November.
    4. Jo-An Occhipinti & Danya Rose & Adam Skinner & Daniel Rock & Yun Ju C. Song & Ante Prodan & Sebastian Rosenberg & Louise Freebairn & Catherine Vacher & Ian B. Hickie, 2022. "Sound Decision Making in Uncertain Times: Can Systems Modelling Be Useful for Informing Policy and Planning for Suicide Prevention?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-15, January.
    5. Thomas E Delea & Derek Weycker & Mark Atwood & Dion Neame & Fabián P Alvarez & Evelyn Forget & Joanne M Langley & Ayman Chit, 2017. "Cost-effectiveness of alternate strategies for childhood immunization against meningococcal disease with monovalent and quadrivalent conjugate vaccines in Canada," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(5), pages 1-17, May.
    6. Ashleigh R Tuite & Ann N Burchell & David N Fisman, 2014. "Cost-Effectiveness of Enhanced Syphilis Screening among HIV-Positive Men Who Have Sex with Men: A Microsimulation Model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(7), pages 1-12, July.
    7. Matthew R Behrend & María-Gloria Basáñez & Jonathan I D Hamley & Travis C Porco & Wilma A Stolk & Martin Walker & Sake J de Vlas & for the NTD Modelling Consortium, 2020. "Modelling for policy: The five principles of the Neglected Tropical Diseases Modelling Consortium," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-17, April.
    8. Stephanie Popping & Sebastiaan J Hullegie & Anne Boerekamps & Bart J A Rijnders & Robert J de Knegt & Jürgen K Rockstroh & Annelies Verbon & Charles A B Boucher & Brooke E Nichols & David A M C van de, 2019. "Early treatment of acute hepatitis C infection is cost-effective in HIV-infected men-who-have-sex-with-men," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, January.
    9. Pascal Crépey & Esther Redondo & Javier Díez-Domingo & Raúl Ortiz de Lejarazu & Federico Martinón-Torres & Ángel Gil de Miguel & Juan Luis López-Belmonte & Fabián P Alvarez & Hélène Bricout & Míriam S, 2020. "From trivalent to quadrivalent influenza vaccines: Public health and economic burden for different immunization strategies in Spain," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-19, May.
    10. Beate Jahn & Sarah Friedrich & Joachim Behnke & Joachim Engel & Ursula Garczarek & Ralf Münnich & Markus Pauly & Adalbert Wilhelm & Olaf Wolkenhauer & Markus Zwick & Uwe Siebert & Tim Friede, 2022. "On the role of data, statistics and decisions in a pandemic," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 106(3), pages 349-382, September.
    11. Richard E Nelson & Makoto Jones & Molly Leecaster & Matthew H Samore & William Ray & Angela Huttner & Benedikt Huttner & Karim Khader & Vanessa W Stevens & Dale Gerding & Marin L Schweizer & Michael A, 2016. "An Economic Analysis of Strategies to Control Clostridium Difficile Transmission and Infection Using an Agent-Based Simulation Model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(3), pages 1-16, March.

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