IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/jorsoc/v62y2011i11d10.1057_jors.2010.169.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An analysis of strategy in the first three innings in test cricket: declaration and the follow-on

Author

Listed:
  • P Scarf

    (University of Salford)

  • S Akhtar

    (University of Salford)

Abstract

This paper analyses declaration and the follow-on decisions in test cricket. We model the match outcome given the end of first, second and third innings positions; data on 391 test matches, from the period 1997 to 2007, are used to fit the models. We then investigate how declaration strategy should vary from innings to innings, and how the nature and strength of the covariate effects vary. As the match progresses, the explanatory power of the covariates increases (from 44% at the end of the first innings to 80% at the end of the third). Home advantage and the effects of team strengths decrease. Overs-remaining, or equivalently overs used, and the number of runs by which the reference team lead their opponents remain important throughout. The follow-on decision problem is also briefly considered, and surprisingly, we find that the decision to enforce the follow-on or otherwise has no effect on match outcome.

Suggested Citation

  • P Scarf & S Akhtar, 2011. "An analysis of strategy in the first three innings in test cricket: declaration and the follow-on," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(11), pages 1931-1940, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:62:y:2011:i:11:d:10.1057_jors.2010.169
    DOI: 10.1057/jors.2010.169
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/jors.2010.169
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/jors.2010.169?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dobson, Stephen & Goddard, John, 2003. "Persistence in sequences of football match results: A Monte Carlo analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 247-256, July.
    2. S R Clarke & J M Norman, 2003. "Dynamic programming in cricket: choosing a night watchman," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(8), pages 838-845, August.
    3. Philip Scarf & Xin Shi & Sohail Akhtar, 2011. "On the distribution of runs scored and batting strategy in test cricket," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 174(2), pages 471-497, April.
    4. Robert Brooks & Robert Faff & David Sokulsky, 2002. "An ordered response model of test cricket performance," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(18), pages 2353-2365.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gaurav Deval & Faiz Hamid & Mayank Goel, 2021. "When to declare the third innings of a test cricket match?," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 303(1), pages 81-99, August.
    2. Praveen Puram & Soumya Roy & Deepak Srivastav & Anand Gurumurthy, 2023. "Understanding the effect of contextual factors and decision making on team performance in Twenty20 cricket: an interpretable machine learning approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 261-288, June.
    3. Moffatt Joanne & Scarf Phil & McHale Ian G. & Passfield Louis & Zhang Kui, 2014. "To lead or not to lead: analysis of the sprint in track cycling," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-12, June.
    4. Akhtar, Sohail & Scarf, Philip, 2012. "Forecasting test cricket match outcomes in play," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 632-643.
    5. Romain Gauriot & Lionel Page, 2015. "I Take Care of My Own: A Field Study on How Leadership Handles Conflict between Individual and Collective Incentives," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 414-419, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Akhtar, Sohail & Scarf, Philip, 2012. "Forecasting test cricket match outcomes in play," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 632-643.
    2. Oliver G. Stevenson & Brendon J. Brewer, 2021. "Finding your feet: A Gaussian process model for estimating the abilities of batsmen in test cricket," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(2), pages 481-506, March.
    3. Gaurav Deval & Faiz Hamid & Mayank Goel, 2021. "When to declare the third innings of a test cricket match?," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 303(1), pages 81-99, August.
    4. Lenten, Liam J.A. & Geerling, Wayne & Kónya, László, 2012. "A hedonic model of player wage determination from the Indian Premier League auction: Further evidence," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 60-71.
    5. Liam J A Lenten & Wayne Geerling & László Kónya, 2010. "A Hedonic Model of Player Wage Determination from the Indian Premier League Auction#," Working Papers 2010.04, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    6. Subhasis Ray, 2021. "Identification of Research Paradigms for Managing the Cricketing Ecosystem Using Stakeholder Analysis and Text Mining," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 46(3), pages 289-312, August.
    7. Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee & Brooks, Robert & Yip, Angela Y.N., 2006. "Determinants of sovereign ratings: A comparison of case-based reasoning and ordered probit approaches," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 136-154, September.
    8. Borooah Vani K & Mangan John E, 2010. "The "Bradman Class": An Exploration of Some Issues in the Evaluation of Batsmen for Test Matches, 1877-2006," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-21, July.
    9. M B Wright, 2009. "50 years of OR in sport," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(1), pages 161-168, May.
    10. Emawtee Bissoondoyal-Bheenick & Sirimon Treepongkaruna, 2011. "An analysis of the determinants of bank ratings: comparison across ratings agencies," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 36(3), pages 405-424, December.
    11. Wei Yin & Zhixiao Ye & Wasi Ul Hassan Shah, 2023. "Indices Development for Player’s Performance Evaluation through the Super-SBM Approach in Each Department for All Three Formats of Cricket," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    12. Ajit Karnik, 2010. "Valuing Cricketers Using Hedonic Price Models," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 11(4), pages 456-469, August.
    13. Asif, Muhammad & McHale, Ian G., 2016. "In-play forecasting of win probability in One-Day International cricket: A dynamic logistic regression model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 34-43.
    14. Hassanniakalager, Arman & Sermpinis, Georgios & Stasinakis, Charalampos & Verousis, Thanos, 2020. "A conditional fuzzy inference approach in forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 283(1), pages 196-216.
    15. Sudipta Sarangi & Emre Unlu, 2011. "Key Players and Key Groups in Teams," Departmental Working Papers 2011-10, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    16. Ruud Koning, 2014. "Professional soccer in the Netherlands," Chapters, in: John Goddard & Peter Sloane (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Professional Football, chapter 20, pages 336-350, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. J M Norman & S R Clarke, 2007. "Dynamic programming in cricket: optimizing batting order for a sticky wicket," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 58(12), pages 1678-1682, December.
    18. Johnston, Iain G., 2022. "Optimal strategies in the fighting fantasy gaming system: Influencing stochastic dynamics by gambling with limited resource," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 302(3), pages 1272-1281.
    19. Espitia-Escuer, Manuel A. & García-Cebrián, Lucía Isabel, 2012. "Diversificación en la configuración de los equipos de la primera división española de fútbol/Diversification in the Team Configuration of the Spanish Football First Division," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 30, pages 527-544, Agosto.
    20. Priyanka Talukdar, 2020. "Investigating the Role of Opening Partners While Chasing on the Outcome of Twenty20 Cricket Matches," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 45(2), pages 222-232, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:62:y:2011:i:11:d:10.1057_jors.2010.169. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.