Forecasting test cricket match outcomes in play
AbstractThis paper forecasts match outcomes in test cricket in play, session by session. Match outcome probabilities at the start of each session are forecast using a sequence of multinomial logistic regression models. These probabilities can assist a team captain or management in considering a certain aggressive or defensive batting strategy for the coming session. We investigate how the outcome probabilities (of a win, draw, or loss) and covariate effects vary session by session. The covariates fall into two categories, pre-match effects (strengths of teams, a ground effect, home field advantage, outcome of the toss) and in-play effects (score or lead, overs-used, overs-remaining, run-rate, and wicket resources used). The results indicate that the lead has a small effect on the match outcome early on but is dominant later; pre-match team strengths, ground effect and home field advantage are important predictors of a win early on; and wicket resources used remains important throughout a match.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.
Volume (Year): 28 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast
Multinomial logistic regression; Strategy; Betting; Sport; Probability;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Liam J. A. Lenten, 2008. "Is The Decline In The Frequency Of Draws In Test Match Cricket Detrimental To The Long Form Of The Game?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 27(4), pages 364-380, December.
- P Scarf & S Akhtar, 2011. "An analysis of strategy in the first three innings in test cricket: declaration and the follow-on," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 62(11), pages 1931-1940, November.
- Dobson, Stephen & Goddard, John, 2003. "Persistence in sequences of football match results: A Monte Carlo analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 247-256, July.
- Trevor J. Ringrose, 2006. "Neutral umpires and leg before wicket decisions in test cricket," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 169(4), pages 903-911.
- P. E. Allsopp & Stephen R. Clarke, 2004. "Rating teams and analysing outcomes in one-day and test cricket," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 167(4), pages 657-667.
- Robert Brooks & Robert Faff & David Sokulsky, 2002. "An ordered response model of test cricket performance," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(18), pages 2353-2365.
- Philip Scarf & Xin Shi & Sohail Akhtar, 2011. "On the distribution of runs scored and batting strategy in test cricket," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 174(2), pages 471-497, 04.
- Zhang, Xinyu & Lu, Zudi & Zou, Guohua, 2013. "Adaptively combined forecasting for discrete response time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 176(1), pages 80-91.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.