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Has Distance Died? Evidence from a Panel Gravity Model

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Author Info
Jean-François Brun
Céline Carrère
Patrick Guillaumont
Jaime de Melo

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Abstract

The estimated coefficient of distance on the volume of trade is generally found to increase rather than decrease through time using the traditional gravity model of trade. This distance puzzle proved robust to several ad hoc versions of the model using data for 1962--96 for a large sample of 130 countries. The introduction of an "augmented" barrier to trade function removes the paradox, yielding a decline in the estimate of the elasticity of trade to distance of about 11 percent over the 35-year period for the whole sample. However, the "death of distance" is shown to be largely confined to bilateral trade between rich countries, with poor countries becoming marginalized. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal The World Bank Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 19 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 99-120
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Handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:19:y:2005:i:1:p:99-120

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hummels, David, 2001. "Time as a Trade Barrier," GTAP Working Papers 1152, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University. [Downloadable!]
  2. Rauch, James E., 1999. "Networks versus markets in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 7-35, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Breusch, Trevor S & Mizon, Grayham E & Schmidt, Peter, 1989. "Efficient Estimation Using Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 695-700, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-53, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Céline CARRERE, 2002. "Revisiting Regional Trading Agreements with Proper Specification of the Gravity Model," Working Papers 200210, CERDI. [Downloadable!]
  7. Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2003. "The proper panel econometric specification of the gravity equation: A three-way model with bilateral interaction effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 571-580, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2001. "The growth of world trade: tariffs, transport costs, and income similarity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-27, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hausman, Jerry A. & Taylor, William E., 1981. "Panel data and unobservable individual effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 155-155, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Hummels, David & Ishii, Jun & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 75-96, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Jean-François BRUN & Jaime MELO DE, 1998. "La distance abolie ? Critères et mesure de la mondialisation du commerce extérieur," Working Papers 199830, CERDI. [Downloadable!]
  12. Hausman, Jerry A & Taylor, William E, 1981. "Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1377-98, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Andrew Levin & Chien-Fu Lin, 1993. "Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: New Results," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 93-56, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  14. Alan Deardorff, 1998. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 7-32 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Limao, Nuno & Venables, Anthony J., 1999. "Infrastructure, geographical disadvantage, and transport costs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2257, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Wilhelm Kohler, 2004. "Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Petr Mariel & Susan Orbe & Carlos Rodríguez, 2007. "A time varying coefficient model for panel data: Foreign Direct Investment in European OECD countries," BILTOKI 200703, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística). [Downloadable!]
  3. de Melo, Jaime & Grether, Jean-Marie, 2003. "Globalization and Dirty Industries: Do Pollution Havens Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3932, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Bhattacharyya Ranajoy & Banerjee Tathagata, 2006. "Does the Gravity Model Explain India's Direction of Trade? A Panel Data Approach," IIMA Working Papers 2006-09-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. Do, Quy-Toan & Levchenko, Andrei A., 2006. "Comparative advantage, demand for external finance, and financial development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3889, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Matthieu Crozet & Pamina Koenig, 2007. "Structural gravity equations with intensive and extensive margins," EconomiX Working Papers 2007-36, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Millimet, Daniel & Henderson, Daniel, 2006. "Is Gravity Linear?," Departmental Working Papers 0517, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Boriss Siliverstovs & Dieter Schumacher, 2008. "Disaggregated Trade Flows and the “Missing Globalization Puzzle”," Working papers 08-209, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Laura Serlenga & Yongcheol Shin, 2004. "Gravity Models of the Intra-EU Trade: Application of the Hausman-Taylor Estimation in Heterogeneous Panels with Common Time-specific Factors," ESE Discussion Papers 105, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh. [Downloadable!]
  10. Borgatti, Lisa, 2007. "Pacific Islands' Bilateral Trade: The Role of Remoteness and of Transport Costs," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  11. Jean-Marie GRETHER & Nicole Mathys, 2008. "Is the World's Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 08.03, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP. [Downloadable!]
  12. Rikhil Bhavnani & David T. Coe & Arvind Subramanian & Natalia T. Tamirisa, 2002. "The Missing Globalization Puzzle," IMF Working Papers 02/171, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. Claudia M. Buch & Jörn Kleinert & Farid Toubal, 2003. "The Distance Puzzle: On the Interpretation of the Distance Coefficient in Gravity Equations," Kiel Working Papers 1159, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. José Guimón, . "Geo-economic implications of the fifth EU enlargement," Studies on the Spanish Economy 167, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  15. Gert-Jan M. Linders, 2005. "Distance Decay in International Trade Patterns - a Meta-analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa05p679, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  16. Christopher Gust & Sylvain Leduc & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2006. "Trade integration, competition, and the decline in exchange-rate pass-through," International Finance Discussion Papers 864, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  17. Guillaumont, Patrick, 2008. "An Economic Vulnerability Index: Its Design and Use for International Development Policy," Working Papers RP2008/99, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  18. Céline CARRERE & Maurice SCHIFF, 2004. "On the Geography of Trade: Distance is Alive and Well," Working Papers 200423, CERDI. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Yongcheol Shin & Laura Serlenga, 2007. "Gravity models of intra-EU trade: application of the CCEP-HT estimation in heterogeneous panels with unobserved common time-specific factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 361-381. [Downloadable!]
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