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Short-term Migration, Rural Public Works, and Urban Labor Markets: Evidence from India

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  • Clément Imbert
  • John Papp

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of India's rural public works program on rural-to-urban migration and urban labor markets. We find that seasonal migration from rural districts that implemented the program decreased relative to those that were selected to, but did not implement it. We use a gravity model and find that real wages rose faster in cities with higher predicted migration from program districts. Since most seasonal migrants work outside of their district, urban wage increases were not limited to program districts, and may have attracted migrants from nonprogram districts. Difference-in-differences may hence be biased. Structural estimates indeed suggest that migration decreased by 22% in program districts, but also increased by 5% in nonprogram districts. As a result, urban wages increased by only 0.5%, against 4.1% if the program had been implemented in all selected districts.

Suggested Citation

  • Clément Imbert & John Papp, 2020. "Short-term Migration, Rural Public Works, and Urban Labor Markets: Evidence from India," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 927-963.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jeurec:v:18:y:2020:i:2:p:927-963.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jeea/jvz009
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    Cited by:

    1. Théo Benonnier & Katrin Millock & Vis Taraz, 2022. "Long-term migration trends and rising temperatures: the role of irrigation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 307-330, July.
    2. Michael A. Clemens & Mariapia Mendola, 2020. "Migration from Developing Countries: Selection, Income Elasticity, and Simpson’s Paradox," Working Papers 539, Center for Global Development.
    3. Jules Gazeaud & Victor Stephane, 2023. "Productive Workfare? Evidence from Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Program," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(1), pages 265-290, January.
    4. Clemens, Michael A., 2022. "Do Cash Transfers Deter Migration?," IZA Policy Papers 191, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2023. "Borrowing Constraints and the Dynamics of Return and Repeat Migration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41(1), pages 205-243.
    6. Hao, Tongtong & Sun, Ruiqi & Tombe, Trevor & Zhu, Xiaodong, 2020. "The effect of migration policy on growth, structural change, and regional inequality in China," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 112-134.
    7. Komeda, Kenji, 2021. "Environmental Factors and Internal Migration in India," Warwick-Monash Economics Student Papers 20, Warwick Monash Economics Student Papers.
    8. Franklin, Simon & Imbert, Clément & Abebe, Girum & Mejia-Mantilla, Carolina, 2021. "Urban Public Works in Spatial Equilibrium: Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia," CEPR Discussion Papers 16691, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Jules Gazeaud & Eric Mvukiyehe & Olivier Sterck, 2023. "Cash Transfers and Migration: Theory and Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 143-157, January.
    10. Nienkerke, Inga Mareike & Thorat, Amit & Patt, Anthony, 2023. "From distress migration to selective migration: Transformative effects of agricultural development on seasonal migration," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    11. Kirchberger, Martina, 2021. "Measuring internal migration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    12. Sudha Narayanan & Christian Oldiges & Shree Saha, 2020. "Employment guarantee during times of COVID-19: Pro-poor and pro-return-migrant?," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2020-034, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    13. Maggio, Giuseppe & Veljanoska, Stefanija, 2021. "Would you rather stay? Agricultural Subsidies and Household Migration in Malawi," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 314041, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Chabé-Ferret, Sylvain & Reynaud, Arnaud & Tène, Eva, 2021. "Water Quality, Policy Diffusion Effects and Farmers’ Behavior," TSE Working Papers 21-1229, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    15. Junli Cheng & Feng Lin, 2022. "The Dynamic Effects of Urban–Rural Income Inequality on Sustainable Economic Growth under Urbanization and Monetary Policy in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-23, June.
    16. de Brauw, Alan, 2018. "Rural-urban migration and implications for rural production," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 6(3), March.

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