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The Uruguay Round and Africa: A Global, General Equilibrium Analysis

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  • Hertel, Thomas W
  • Masters, William A
  • Elbehri, Aziz

Abstract

Using a 10-region, 12-sector model of the global economy, projected forward to 2005 with and without implementation of the Uruguay Round (UR) trade agreements, we confirm earlier expectations that Africa is likely to be the only major region of the world to lose from UR implementation--but find that UR-induced costs would be far outweighed by the potential gains from catching up with other low-income countries in agricultural productivity and in transport costs. Furthermore, we find that implementing the UR accelerates a resource-driven shift in Africa's comparative advantage towards agriculture (as opposed to mining or manufacturing) and towards trade with Asia (as opposed to Europe). Recognising and supporting this 'Asia/agriculture' development strategy will be a key to raising African incomes over the coming decade. Copyright 1998 by Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) in its journal Journal of African Economies.

Volume (Year): 7 (1998)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
Pages: 208-36

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Handle: RePEc:oup:jafrec:v:7:y:1998:i:2:p:208-36

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Cited by:
  1. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela & Lee Ann Jackson, 2008. "Recent and Prospective Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton: A Global Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Economic Impacts," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 265-296.
  2. Margaret S. McMillan & William A. Masters, 2000. "Africa's growth trap: a political-economy model of taxation, R&D and investment," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-14, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  3. McMillan, Margaret S. & Masters, William A., 2000. "An African Growth Trap: Production Technology And The Time-Consistency Of Agricultural Taxation, R&D And Investment," Miscellaneous Papers 11839, Agecon Search.
  4. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela & Lee Ann Jackson, 2007. "Recent and Prospective Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton: A Global CGE Analysis of Economic Impacts," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2007-07, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  5. John McLaren, 2003. "Institutional Elements of Tax Design and Reform," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15170, January.
  6. Anderson, Kym & Jackson, Lee Ann & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2006. "GM Cotton Adoption, Recent and Prospective: A Global CGE Analysis of Economic Impacts," CEPR Discussion Papers 5568, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 1999. "After the negotiations: assessing the impact of free trade agreements in Southern Africa," TMD discussion papers 46, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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