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Trade exposure and income volatility in cash-crop exporting developing countries

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Author Info
François Bourguignon

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Abstract

World commodity price volatility generates an aggregate macroeconomic risk for the many developing countries that are dependent on the export of a few agricultural commodities. Usual income indicators should therefore take into account the corresponding risk premium, especially for households close to subsistence level. A risk-augmented income distribution would yield a very different ranking of the policies often used to alleviate the domestic impact of world price volatility. This paper gives illustrative examples using simulations generated by a general equilibrium model with random prices for cash crops. Results show that policies that are similar in terms of expected average income can have quite different effects in terms of income variances. Copyright 2004, Oxford University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press for the Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics in its journal European Review of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 31 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 369-387
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Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:31:y:2004:i:3:p:369-387

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Volatility and Investment: Interpreting Evidence from Developing Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(262), pages 157-79, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. David O’Connor & Maria Rosa Lunati, 1999. "Economic Opening and the Demand for Skills in Developing Countries: A Review of Theory and Evidence," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 149, OECD, Development Centre. [Downloadable!]
  3. Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY & Jean-François BRUN, 1998. "How Instability Lowers African Growth," Working Papers 199806, CERDI. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Newbery, David M G & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Pareto Inferior Trade," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(1), pages 1-12, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Daniel A. Traca, 2005. "Trade Exposure, Export Intensity, and Wage Volatility: Theory and Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 336-347, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Donald J. Robbins, 1996. "Evidence on Trade and Wages in the Developing World," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 119, OECD, Development Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Valenzuela, Ernesto & Hertel, Thomas, 2006. "Poverty Vulnerability and Trade Policy: Are the Likely Impacts Discernable?," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21397, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  2. Rapsomanikis, George & Sarris, Alexander, 2006. "The Impact of Domestic and International Commodity Price Volatility on Agricultural Income Instability: Ghana, Vietnam and Peru," Working Papers DP2006/04, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
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