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Fertilization under Uncertainty: An Analysis Based on Producer Yield Expectations

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  • S. SriRamaratnam
  • David A. Bessler
  • M. Edward Rister
  • John E. Matocha
  • James Novak

Abstract

Optimal nitrogen fertilizer levels are computed for a sample of Texas Coastal Bend grain sorghum producers based on their assessed subjective conditional yield and price probabilities, utility measures, and cost information. Producers' mean yield expectations were substantially greater than experimental yield response and their perceptions of the effects of nitrogen on yield variability were contrary to usual characterization of nitrogen as a risk-increasing input. Optimal fertilizer levels based on expected utility maximization represent actual fertilizer use somewhat better than those based on expected profit maximization. However, both calculated levels were high relative to actual fertilizer use.

Suggested Citation

  • S. SriRamaratnam & David A. Bessler & M. Edward Rister & John E. Matocha & James Novak, 1987. "Fertilization under Uncertainty: An Analysis Based on Producer Yield Expectations," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(2), pages 349-357.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:69:y:1987:i:2:p:349-357.
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    1. Richard V. Llewelyn & Jeffery R. Williams, 1996. "Nonparametric analysis of technical, pure technical, and scale efficiencies for food crop production in East Java, Indonesia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 15(2), pages 113-126, November.
    2. Mitchell, Paul D., 2004. "Nutrient Best Management Practice Insurance and Farmer Perceptions of Adoption Risk," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 657-673, December.
    3. Benjamin Dequiedt & Emmanuel Servonnat, 2016. "Risk as a limit or an opportunity to mitigate GHG emissions? The case of fertilisation in agriculture," Working Papers 1606, Chaire Economie du climat.
    4. Khor, Ling Yee & Zeller, Manfred, 2012. "Doubts on input quality: The effect of inaccurate fertilizer content on the estimation of production functions and technical efficiency," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126212, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Chad Lawley & Erik Lichtenberg & Doug Parker, 2009. "Biases in Nutrient Management Planning," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 85(1), pages 186-200.
    6. Dhungana, Basanta R. & Nuthall, Peter L. & Nartea, Gilbert V., 2000. "Explaining Economic Inefficiency Of Nepalese Rice Farms: An Empirical Investigation," 2000 Conference (44th), January 23-25, 2000, Sydney, Australia 123630, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    7. Gomez-Limon, Jose Antonio & Riesgo, Laura & Arriaza Balmón, Manuel, 2002. "Agricultural Risk Aversion Revisited: A Multicriteria Decision-Making Approach," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24827, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Chai, Yuan & Pannell, David J. & Pardey, Philip G., 2022. "Reducing Water Pollution from Nitrogen Fertilizer: Revisiting Insights from Production Economics," Staff Papers 320519, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    9. Khojasteh, Khosrow, 1992. "Effects of farm characteristics and government disaster assistance on multiple-peril crop insurance purchases by Iowa crop farmers," ISU General Staff Papers 1992010108000010841, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    10. Glenn Sheriff, 2005. "Efficient Waste? Why Farmers Over-Apply Nutrients and the Implications for Policy Design," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 27(4), pages 542-557.
    11. Agarwal, Sandip & Jacobs, Keri L. & Weninger, Quinn, 2016. "Elicitation of Subjective Beliefs: A Pilot study of farmers' nitrogen management decision-making in Central Iowa," ISU General Staff Papers 201601010800001005, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    12. Paulson, Nicholas D. & Babcock, Bruce A., 2010. "Readdressing the Fertilizer Problem," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1-17, December.
    13. Dhungana, Basanta R. & Nuthall, Peter L. & Nartea, Gilbert V., 2004. "Measuring the economic inefficiency of Nepalese rice farms using data envelopment analysis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 48(2), pages 1-23.
    14. Babcock, Bruce A. & Shogren, Jason F., 1995. "The cost of agricultural production risk," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 141-150, August.
    15. Asci, Serhat & Borisova, Tatiana & VanSickle, John J., 2014. "Risks in Potato Production: Fertilizer, Water, and Producers’ Decision Making," 2014 Annual Meeting, February 1-4, 2014, Dallas, Texas 162536, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    16. Metcalfe, Todd & Bosch, Darrell J. & Pease, James W. & Alley, Mark M. & Phillips, Steve B., 2007. "Yield Reserve Program Costs in the Virginia Coastal Plain," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 36(2), pages 1-16, October.
    17. Wen-Yuan Huang & Richard Heifner & Harold Taylor & Noel Uri, 2000. "Timing Nitrogen Fertilizer Application to Reduce Nitrogen Losses to the Environment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 14(1), pages 35-58, February.
    18. Legg, Thomas D. & Fletcher, Jerald J. & Easter, K. William, 1988. "Nitrogen Management In Southeastern Minnesota," Economic Reports 13020, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    19. Jiangying Guo & Jiwei Chen, 2022. "The Impact of Heavy Rainfall Variability on Fertilizer Application Rates: Evidence from Maize Farmers in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-17, November.
    20. Khor, Ling Yee & Zeller, Manfred, 2014. "Inaccurate fertilizer content and its effect on the estimation of production functions," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 123-132.
    21. Gomez-Limon, Jose A. & Arriaza, Manuel & Riesgo, Laura, 2003. "An MCDM analysis of agricultural risk aversion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 151(3), pages 569-585, December.
    22. Asci, Serhat & Borisova, Tatiana & VanSickle, John J. & Zotarelli, Lincoln, 2012. "Risk and Nitrogen Application Decisions in Florida Potato Production," 2012 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2012, Birmingham, Alabama 119797, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    23. Brian Lee & Jhih‐Yun Liu & Hung‐Hao Chang, 2020. "The choice of marketing channel and farm profitability: Empirical evidence from small farmers," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 402-421, June.
    24. Agarwal, Sandip & Jacobs, Keri L. & Weninger, Quinn, 2016. "Unfolding the Bias in Farm Nitrogen Management," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 237380, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    25. Sellars, Sarah C. & Schnitkey, Gary D. & Gentry, Laura F., 2020. "Do Illinois Farmers Follow University-Based Nitrogen Recommendations?," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304617, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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