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Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles

Author

Listed:
  • David L. McCollum

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    University of Tennessee)

  • Charlie Wilson

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    University of East Anglia)

  • Michela Bevione

    (Climate and Sustainable Innovation (CSI) Program, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), and Economic analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy Division (ECIP), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC))

  • Samuel Carrara

    (Climate and Sustainable Innovation (CSI) Program, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), and Economic analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy Division (ECIP), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC))

  • Oreane Y. Edelenbosch

    (Climate, Air and Energy Department, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • Johannes Emmerling

    (Climate and Sustainable Innovation (CSI) Program, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), and Economic analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy Division (ECIP), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC))

  • Céline Guivarch

    (Ecole des Ponts, Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED))

  • Panagiotis Karkatsoulis

    (National Technical University of Athens)

  • Ilkka Keppo

    (University College London, Central House)

  • Volker Krey

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Zhenhong Lin

    (Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)
    University of Tennessee)

  • Eoin Ó Broin

    (Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED) & Société de Mathématiques Appliquées et de Sciences Humaines (SMASH))

  • Leonidas Paroussos

    (National Technical University of Athens)

  • Hazel Pettifor

    (University of East Anglia)

  • Kalai Ramea

    (University of California, Davis)

  • Keywan Riahi

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    Graz University of Technology
    Payne Institute, Colorado School of Mines)

  • Fuminori Sano

    (Systems Analysis Group, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE))

  • Baltazar Solano Rodriguez

    (University College London, Central House)

  • Detlef P. Vuuren

    (Climate, Air and Energy Department, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

Abstract

Burgeoning demands for mobility and private vehicle ownership undermine global efforts to reduce energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. Advanced vehicles powered by low-carbon sources of electricity or hydrogen offer an alternative to conventional fossil-fuelled technologies. Yet, despite ambitious pledges and investments by governments and automakers, it is by no means clear that these vehicles will ultimately reach mass-market consumers. Here, we develop state-of-the-art representations of consumer preferences in multiple global energy-economy models, specifically focusing on the non-financial preferences of individuals. We employ these enhanced model formulations to analyse the potential for a low-carbon vehicle revolution up to 2050. Our analysis shows that a diverse set of measures targeting vehicle buyers is necessary to drive widespread adoption of clean technologies. Carbon pricing alone is insufficient to bring low-carbon vehicles to the mass market, though it may have a supporting role in ensuring a decarbonized energy supply.

Suggested Citation

  • David L. McCollum & Charlie Wilson & Michela Bevione & Samuel Carrara & Oreane Y. Edelenbosch & Johannes Emmerling & Céline Guivarch & Panagiotis Karkatsoulis & Ilkka Keppo & Volker Krey & Zhenhong Li, 2018. "Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(8), pages 664-673, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natene:v:3:y:2018:i:8:d:10.1038_s41560-018-0195-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41560-018-0195-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiong, Siqin & Yuan, Yi & Yao, Jia & Bai, Bo & Ma, Xiaoming, 2023. "Exploring consumer preferences for electric vehicles based on the random coefficient logit model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PA).
    2. Shrimali, Gireesh, 2021. "Getting to India's electric vehicle targets cost-effectively: To subsidize or not, and how?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    3. Bhardwaj, Chandan & Axsen, Jonn & Kern, Florian & McCollum, David, 2020. "Why have multiple climate policies for light-duty vehicles? Policy mix rationales, interactions and research gaps," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 309-326.
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    5. Md Arif Hasan & Abdullah Al Mamun & Syed Masiur Rahman & Karim Malik & Md. Iqram Uddin Al Amran & Abu Nasser Khondaker & Omer Reshi & Surya Prakash Tiwari & Fahad Saleh Alismail, 2021. "Climate Change Mitigation Pathways for the Aviation Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-29, March.
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    9. Siliang Yi & Chuyuan Zou, 2023. "Assessing Transformation Practices in China under Energy and Environmental Policy Goals: A Green Design Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-12, February.
    10. Xu, Jin-Hua & Guo, Jian-Feng & Peng, Binbin & Nie, Hongguang & Kemp, Rene, 2020. "Energy growth sources and future energy-saving potentials in passenger transportation sector in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    11. Gregor Semieniuk & Emanuele Campiglio & Jean‐Francois Mercure & Ulrich Volz & Neil R. Edwards, 2021. "Low‐carbon transition risks for finance," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), January.
    12. Otto, Ilona M. & Wiedermann, Marc & Cremades, Roger & Donges, Jonathan F. & Auer, Cornelia & Lucht, Wolfgang, 2020. "Human agency in the Anthropocene," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    13. Kim, Yeong Jae & Wilson, Charlie, 2019. "Analysing energy innovation portfolios from a systemic perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    14. Zhang, Runsen & Zhang, Junyi, 2021. "Long-term pathways to deep decarbonization of the transport sector in the post-COVID world," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 28-36.
    15. Siskos, Pelopidas & Moysoglou, Yannis, 2019. "Assessing the impacts of setting CO2 emission targets on truck manufacturers: A model implementation and application for the EU," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 123-138.
    16. Li, Chunzhi & Xiao, Wei & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "Low-carbon transformation of cities: Understanding the demand for dockless bike sharing in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    17. Maxwell Woody & Gregory A. Keoleian & Parth Vaishnav, 2023. "Decarbonization potential of electrifying 50% of U.S. light-duty vehicle sales by 2030," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    18. Gao, Kun & Yang, Ying & Gil, Jorge & Qu, Xiaobo, 2023. "Data-driven interpretation on interactive and nonlinear effects of the correlated built environment on shared mobility," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    19. Deka, Chayasmita & Dutta, Mrinal Kanti & Yazdanpanah, Masoud & Komendantova, Nadejda, 2023. "Can gain motivation induce Indians to adopt electric vehicles? Application of an extended theory of Planned Behavior to map EV adoption intention," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    20. Omar Isaac Asensio & Camila Z. Apablaza & M. Cade Lawson & Sarah Elizabeth Walsh, 2022. "A field experiment on workplace norms and electric vehicle charging etiquette," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(1), pages 183-196, February.
    21. Liangui Peng & Ying Li & Hui Yu, 2021. "Effects of Dual Credit Policy and Consumer Preferences on Production Decisions in Automobile Supply Chain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, May.
    22. Jeuland, Marc & Fetter, T. Robert & Li, Yating & Pattanayak, Subhrendu K. & Usmani, Faraz & Bluffstone, Randall A. & Chávez, Carlos & Girardeau, Hannah & Hassen, Sied & Jagger, Pamela & Jaime, Mónica , 2021. "Is energy the golden thread? A systematic review of the impacts of modern and traditional energy use in low- and middle-income countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    23. Fabio Luis Marques dos Santos & Paolo Tecchio & Fulvio Ardente & Ferenc Pekár, 2021. "User Automotive Powertrain-Type Choice Model and Analysis Using Neural Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-15, January.
    24. Walter, Antonia & Held, Maximilian & Pareschi, Giacomo & Pengg, Hermann & Madlener, Reinhard, 2020. "Decarbonizing the European Automobile Fleet: Impacts of 1.5 °C-compliant Climate Policies in Germany and Norway," FCN Working Papers 18/2020, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    25. Daioglou, Vassilis & Mikropoulos, Efstratios & Gernaat, David & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2022. "Efficiency improvement and technology choice for energy and emission reductions of the residential sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).

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