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The impact of methane leakage on the role of natural gas in the European energy transition

Author

Listed:
  • Behrang Shirizadeh

    (6 Place de La Pyramide Tour Majunga Deloitte
    CIRED, 45 bis avenue de La Belle Gabrielle)

  • Manuel Villavicencio

    (6 Place de La Pyramide Tour Majunga Deloitte)

  • Sebastien Douguet

    (6 Place de La Pyramide Tour Majunga Deloitte)

  • Johannes Trüby

    (6 Place de La Pyramide Tour Majunga Deloitte)

  • Charbel Bou Issa

    (6 Place de La Pyramide Tour Majunga Deloitte)

  • Gondia Sokhna Seck

    (IFP Energies Nouvelles, 1-4 Avenue Bois Preau)

  • Vincent D’herbemont

    (IFP Energies Nouvelles, 1-4 Avenue Bois Preau)

  • Emmanuel Hache

    (IFP Energies Nouvelles, 1-4 Avenue Bois Preau)

  • Louis-Marie Malbec

    (IFP Energies Nouvelles, 1-4 Avenue Bois Preau)

  • Jerome Sabathier

    (IFP Energies Nouvelles, 1-4 Avenue Bois Preau)

  • Malavika Venugopal

    (Carbon Limits, C. J. Hambros plass 2)

  • Fanny Lagrange

    (Carbon Limits, C. J. Hambros plass 2)

  • Stephanie Saunier

    (Carbon Limits, C. J. Hambros plass 2)

  • Julian Straus

    (SINTEF Energy Research, Sem Sælands Vei 11)

  • Gunhild A. Reigstad

    (SINTEF Energy Research, Sem Sælands Vei 11)

Abstract

Decarbonising energy systems is a prevalent topic in the current literature on climate change mitigation, but the additional climate burden caused by methane emissions along the natural gas value chain is rarely discussed at the system level. Considering a two-basket greenhouse gas neutrality objective (both CO2 and methane), we model cost-optimal European energy transition pathways towards 2050. Our analysis shows that adoption of best available methane abatement technologies can entail an 80% reduction in methane leakage, limiting the additional environmental burden to 8% of direct CO2 emissions (vs. 35% today). We show that, while renewable energy sources are key drivers of climate neutrality, the role of natural gas strongly depends on actions to abate both associated CO2 and methane emissions. Moreover, clean hydrogen (produced mainly from renewables) can replace natural gas in a substantial proportion of its end-uses, satisfying nearly a quarter of final energy demand in a climate-neutral Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Behrang Shirizadeh & Manuel Villavicencio & Sebastien Douguet & Johannes Trüby & Charbel Bou Issa & Gondia Sokhna Seck & Vincent D’herbemont & Emmanuel Hache & Louis-Marie Malbec & Jerome Sabathier & , 2023. "The impact of methane leakage on the role of natural gas in the European energy transition," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-41527-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-41527-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Julianne DeAngelo & Inês Azevedo & John Bistline & Leon Clarke & Gunnar Luderer & Edward Byers & Steven J. Davis, 2021. "Energy systems in scenarios at net-zero CO2 emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Oytun Babacan & Sven Causmaecker & Ajay Gambhir & Mathilde Fajardy & A. William Rutherford & Andrea Fantuzzi & Jenny Nelson, 2020. "Assessing the feasibility of carbon dioxide mitigation options in terms of energy usage," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 5(9), pages 720-728, September.
    3. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Guido Schmidt-Traub & Mariana Mazzucato & Dirk Messner & Nebojsa Nakicenovic & Johan Rockström, 2019. "Six Transformations to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(9), pages 805-814, September.
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