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Global crop yields can be lifted by timely adaptation of growing periods to climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Sara Minoli

    (Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Jonas Jägermeyr

    (Member of the Leibniz Association
    NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
    Columbia University, Climate School)

  • Senthold Asseng

    (Technical University of Munich, Department of Life Science Engineering)

  • Anton Urfels

    (South Asia Regional Office
    Wageningen University & Research
    Wageningen University & Research)

  • Christoph Müller

    (Member of the Leibniz Association)

Abstract

Adaptive management of crop growing periods by adjusting sowing dates and cultivars is one of the central aspects of crop production systems, tightly connected to local climate. However, it is so far underrepresented in crop-model based assessments of yields under climate change. In this study, we integrate models of farmers’ decision making with biophysical crop modeling at the global scale to simulate crop calendars adaptation and its effect on crop yields of maize, rice, sorghum, soybean and wheat. We simulate crop growing periods and yields (1986-2099) under counterfactual management scenarios assuming no adaptation, timely adaptation or delayed adaptation of sowing dates and cultivars. We then compare the counterfactual growing periods and corresponding yields at the end of the century (2080-2099). We find that (i) with adaptation, temperature-driven sowing dates (typical at latitudes >30°N-S) will have larger shifts than precipitation-driven sowing dates (at latitudes

Suggested Citation

  • Sara Minoli & Jonas Jägermeyr & Senthold Asseng & Anton Urfels & Christoph Müller, 2022. "Global crop yields can be lifted by timely adaptation of growing periods to climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-34411-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34411-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baris Karapinar & Gökhan Özertan, 2020. "Yield implications of date and cultivar adaptation to wheat phenological shifts: a survey of farmers in Turkey," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 453-472, February.
    2. James R. Hunt & Julianne M. Lilley & Ben Trevaskis & Bonnie M. Flohr & Allan Peake & Andrew Fletcher & Alexander B. Zwart & David Gobbett & John A. Kirkegaard, 2019. "Early sowing systems can boost Australian wheat yields despite recent climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(3), pages 244-247, March.
    3. Wickham, Hadley, 2011. "The Split-Apply-Combine Strategy for Data Analysis," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 40(i01).
    4. Baris Karapinar & Gökhan Özertan, 2020. "Correction to: Yield implications of date and cultivar adaptation to wheat phenological shifts: a survey of farmers in Turkey," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(2), pages 271-271, January.
    5. A. J. Challinor & J. Watson & D. B. Lobell & S. M. Howden & D. R. Smith & N. Chhetri, 2014. "A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(4), pages 287-291, April.
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