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Evidence of anthropogenic impacts on global drought frequency, duration, and intensity

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  • Felicia Chiang

    (University of California)

  • Omid Mazdiyasni

    (University of California)

  • Amir AghaKouchak

    (University of California
    University of California)

Abstract

Most climate change detection and attribution studies have focused on mean or extreme temperature or precipitation, neglecting to explore long-term changes in drought characteristics. Here we provide evidence that anthropogenic forcing has impacted interrelated meteorological drought characteristics. Using SPI and SPEI indices generated from an ensemble of 9 CMIP6 models (using 3 realizations per model), we show that the presence of anthropogenic forcing has increased the drought frequency, maximum drought duration, and maximum drought intensity experienced in large parts of the Americas, Africa, and Asia. Using individual greenhouse gas and anthropogenic aerosol forcings, we also highlight that regional balances between the two major forcings have contributed to the drying patterns detected in our results. Overall, we provide a comprehensive characterization of the influence of anthropogenic forcing on drought characteristics, providing important perspectives on the role of forcings in driving changes in drought events.

Suggested Citation

  • Felicia Chiang & Omid Mazdiyasni & Amir AghaKouchak, 2021. "Evidence of anthropogenic impacts on global drought frequency, duration, and intensity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-22314-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22314-w
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    Cited by:

    1. Donghui Xu & Gautam Bisht & Zeli Tan & Eva Sinha & Alan V. Vittorio & Tian Zhou & Valeriy Y. Ivanov & L. Ruby Leung, 2024. "Climate change will reduce North American inland wetland areas and disrupt their seasonal regimes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Renata Kuśmierek-Tomaszewska & Jacek Żarski, 2021. "Assessment of Meteorological and Agricultural Drought Occurrence in Central Poland in 1961–2020 as an Element of the Climatic Risk to Crop Production," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-17, September.
    3. Zaheer Allam & Ayyoob Sharifi & Damien Giurco & Samantha A. Sharpe, 2021. "On the Theoretical Conceptualisations, Knowledge Structures and Trends of Green New Deals," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-25, November.
    4. Pin Wang & Ernest Asare & Virginia E. Pitzer & Robert Dubrow & Kai Chen, 2022. "Associations between long-term drought and diarrhea among children under five in low- and middle-income countries," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Flexor, Georges, 2024. "Food challenges, technological changes and food geopolitics," Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural (RESR), Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural, vol. 62(3), January.

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