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Very short-lived halogens amplify ozone depletion trends in the tropical lower stratosphere

Author

Listed:
  • Julián Villamayor

    (Institute of Physical Chemistry Rocasolano, CSIC)

  • Fernando Iglesias-Suarez

    (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre)

  • Carlos A. Cuevas

    (Institute of Physical Chemistry Rocasolano, CSIC)

  • Rafael P. Fernandez

    (Institute for Interdisciplinary Science (ICB), National Research Council (CONICET), FCEN-UNCuyo)

  • Qinyi Li

    (Institute of Physical Chemistry Rocasolano, CSIC
    The Hong Kong Polytechnic University)

  • Marta Abalos

    (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

  • Ryan Hossaini

    (Lancaster University)

  • Martyn P. Chipperfield

    (University of Leeds
    University of Leeds)

  • Douglas E. Kinnison

    (NCAR)

  • Simone Tilmes

    (NCAR)

  • Jean-François Lamarque

    (NCAR)

  • Alfonso Saiz-Lopez

    (Institute of Physical Chemistry Rocasolano, CSIC)

Abstract

In contrast to the general stratospheric ozone recovery following international agreements, recent observations show an ongoing net ozone depletion in the tropical lower stratosphere (LS). This depletion is thought to be driven by dynamical transport accelerated by global warming, while chemical processes have been considered to be unimportant. Here we use a chemistry–climate model to demonstrate that halogenated ozone-depleting very short-lived substances (VSLS) chemistry may account for around a quarter of the observed tropical LS negative ozone trend in 1998–2018. VSLS sources include both natural and anthropogenic emissions. Future projections show the persistence of the currently unaccounted for contribution of VSLS to ozone loss throughout the twenty-first century in the tropical LS, the only region of the global stratosphere not projecting an ozone recovery by 2100. Our results show the need for mitigation strategies of anthropogenic VSLS emissions to preserve the present and future ozone layer in low latitudes.

Suggested Citation

  • Julián Villamayor & Fernando Iglesias-Suarez & Carlos A. Cuevas & Rafael P. Fernandez & Qinyi Li & Marta Abalos & Ryan Hossaini & Martyn P. Chipperfield & Douglas E. Kinnison & Simone Tilmes & Jean-Fr, 2023. "Very short-lived halogens amplify ozone depletion trends in the tropical lower stratosphere," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(6), pages 554-560, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:13:y:2023:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-023-01671-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01671-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Malte Meinshausen & S. Smith & K. Calvin & J. Daniel & M. Kainuma & J-F. Lamarque & K. Matsumoto & S. Montzka & S. Raper & K. Riahi & A. Thomson & G. Velders & D.P. Vuuren, 2011. "The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 213-241, November.
    2. Ryan Hossaini & Martyn P. Chipperfield & Stephen A. Montzka & Amber A. Leeson & Sandip S. Dhomse & John A. Pyle, 2017. "The increasing threat to stratospheric ozone from dichloromethane," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-9, December.
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