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Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade in Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Kanu Success Ikechi

    (Department of Banking and Finance, Faculty of Social and Management Sciences, Eastern Palm University, Ogboko Ideato, Imo State, Nigeria)

  • Nwadiubu Anthony

    (Department of Banking and Finance, Faculty of Social and Management Sciences, Eastern Palm University, Ogboko Ideato, Imo State, Nigeria)

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of exchange rate volatilities on international trade in Nigeria. The research is carried under the assumption that exchange rate volatilities are deemed to impact on the volume of export and import trading activities. The study made use of Secondary data from 1996 to 2018. Econometric tools were used to ascertain relationships. The paper established a mixed result between the variables under review. While some of the tests did not provide adequate and predictive information on the relationship between exports, imports and real effective exchange rate, others did. The VAR model estimates indicate an inverse relationship between Export, Import and REER in current periods. A unit increase in export and import in a particular year leads to about 0.9% and 0.4% decrease in REER respectively. Variance decomposition analysis suggests that the shocks partially explain fluctuations in REER, as well as exports and imports. The Impulse response analysis indicates a negative association between export and real effective exchange rate while it was majorly positive for imports throughout the ten periods. The causal effect reveals that import causes exports but that exports do not granger cause imports. The ARCH modelling approach suggests the existence of a first-order Arch effect and a significant GARCH term. Though the Coefficient of GARCH in a mean term is negative; it produced a singular covariance which by itself is not unique. Results show evidence of volatility of REER clustering on import and export trading activities in Nigeria. This could have serious implications for growth in Nigeria, as a reduction in the growth of exports could reduce the foreign exchange earnings available for the financing of developmental projects. At the same time, a decline in imports could affect domestic production and consumption. It could also impinge negatively on the balance of payment positions for Nigeria. In line with these observations, monetary and fiscal interventions are required to mitigate the adverse effects since financial shocks often exacerbate exchange rate volatilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Kanu Success Ikechi & Nwadiubu Anthony, 2020. "Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade in Nigeria," International Journal of Management Science and Business Administration, Inovatus Services Ltd., vol. 6(5), pages 56-72, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:mgs:ijmsba:v:6:y:2020:i:5:p:56-72
    DOI: 10.18775/ijmsba.1849-5664-5419.2014.65.1007
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    Cited by:

    1. Mela Yila Dogo & Osman Nuri Aras, 2021. "Effect of Volatility in the Naira - Dollar Exchange Rate on the volume of Imports to, and Exports from Nigeria," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 68-73.
    2. Izunna Chima Anyikwa & Lehlohonolo Domela, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows in BRICS economies," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 224-247, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export; Import; Real exchange rate; Nominal exchange rate; International trade; Exchange rate volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M00 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - General - - - General

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