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Oil Prices and Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: Structural Shifts in Causal Linkages

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  • Saban Nazlioglu
  • Alper Gormus
  • Ugur Soytas

Abstract

This study tests the causal relationships between oil prices and monetary policy for the emerging markets (Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey). In particular, we explore the role of exchange rates, inflation, and interest rates. First, we utilize the commonly used Toda–Yamamoto causality framework and later augment the model to account for structural shifts—including gradual/smooth shifts. The empirical findings show that (i) accounting for gradual structural shifts matter for the causal linkages between oil prices and the monetary policy variables and (ii) employing a bivariate or multivariate frameworks is not important (with few exceptions) as much as controlling for structural breaks in these causal linkages.

Suggested Citation

  • Saban Nazlioglu & Alper Gormus & Ugur Soytas, 2019. "Oil Prices and Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: Structural Shifts in Causal Linkages," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1), pages 105-117, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:55:y:2019:i:1:p:105-117
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2018.1434072
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    8. Togonidze, Sophio & Kočenda, Evžen, 2022. "Macroeconomic responses of emerging market economies to oil price shocks: An analysis by region and resource profile," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(3).
    9. Nazlioglu, Saban & Gupta, Rangan & Gormus, Alper & Soytas, Ugur, 2020. "Price and volatility linkages between international REITs and oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    10. Basse, Tobias & Wegener, Christoph, 2022. "Inflation expectations: Australian consumer survey data versus the bond market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 416-430.
    11. Zhang, Jinjun & Abbasi, Kashif Raza & Hussain, Khadim & Akram, Sabahat & Alvarado, Rafael & Almulhim, Abdulaziz I., 2022. "Another perspective towards energy consumption factors in Pakistan: Fresh policy insights from novel methodological framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    12. Nazlioglu, Saban & Gupta, Rangan & Bouri, Elie, 2020. "Movements in international bond markets: The role of oil prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 47-58.
    13. Jelilov Gylych & Abdullahi Ahmad Jbrin & Bilal Celik & Abdurrahman Isik, 2020. "The Effect of Oil Price Fluctuation on the Economy of Nigeria," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 461-468.
    14. Pata, Ugur Korkut & Yilanci, Veli & Zhang, Qianxiao & Shah, Syed Ale Raza, 2022. "Does financial development promote renewable energy consumption in the USA? Evidence from the Fourier-wavelet quantile causality test," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 432-443.
    15. Yildirim, Zekeriya & Arifli, Arif, 2021. "Oil price shocks, exchange rate and macroeconomic fluctuations in a small oil-exporting economy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
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    17. James E Payne & Saban Nazlioglu & Andrea Mervar, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and international tourist arrivals: A disaggregated analysis of the Croatian Adriatic coast," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(4), pages 986-1004, June.
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    19. Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar & T. M. Rajesha & Lokesha Lokesha & Adel M. Sarea, 2020. "Causal Nexus between the Anamolies in the Crude Oil Price and Stock Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(3), pages 233-238.
    20. Aldenis Vásquez & Rafael Alvarado & Brayan Tillaguango & Cem Işık & Muntasir Murshed, 2023. "Impact of Social and Institutional Indicators on the Homicide Rate in Ecuador: An Analysis Using Advanced Time Series Techniques," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 1-22, September.
    21. Arunava Bandyopadhyay & Soumen Rej & Kashif Raza Abbasi & Ashar Awan, 2023. "Nexus between tourism, hydropower, and CO2 emissions in India: fresh insights from ARDL and cumulative fourier frequency domain causality," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(10), pages 10903-10927, October.
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    23. Shangle, Ai & Solaymani, Saeed, 2020. "Responses of monetary policies to oil price changes in Malaysia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    24. Evrim Mandaci, Pinar & Cagli, Efe Caglar, 2022. "Herding intensity and volatility in cryptocurrency markets during the COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).

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